Nieciecza 1-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nieciecza face Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nieciecza host Radomiak Radom at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza in Ekstraklasa (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 1 March 2026 at 11:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Nieciecza — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nieciecza at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Radomiak Radom have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nieciecza at 1.20 PPG versus Radomiak Radom's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Nieciecza's games and 80% of Radomiak Radom's (from Nieciecza's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Nieciecza, 0 for Radomiak Radom and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Aug 2025, ended Nieciecza 1–1 Radomiak Radom — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Nieciecza in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nieciecza 64% and Radomiak Radom 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nieciecza 46% | Radomiak Radom 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.16 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 0.774 / defence 1.255 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.992 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.155. Nieciecza's attack rating of 0.774 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Nieciecza's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Radomiak Radom's projected output up. Data: built from Nieciecza's last 22 games and Radomiak Radom's last 55.
Result probabilities: Nieciecza 29% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 42%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 3.43 | Draw 3.50 | Radomiak Radom 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Nieciecza's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nieciecza 60% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 23 | Venue: Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nieciecza 29% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Nieciecza 1.16 / Radomiak Radom 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Nieciecza attack 0.774 / def 1.255 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.992 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Nieciecza xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Radomiak Radom xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom FAQs
What time does Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What was the final score in Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom?
Nieciecza 1 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What competition is Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 23) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Nieciecza a 29% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nieciecza's attack rating (0.77) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Nieciecza's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nieciecza's last 22 games and Radomiak Radom's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
29%
3.43
29%
3.50
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Nieciecza xG
Total xG
2.60
1.44
Radomiak Radom xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
7%
14.45
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Nieciecza and 1.44 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nieciecza's recent record stands at 5W 6D 11L from 22 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 8L across 22 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nieciecza on 0.95 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nieciecza have managed 2W 3D 6L from their last 11 home games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 1W 5D 5L across their last 11 away games, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Nieciecza are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.73 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Radomiak Radom in 73%.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nieciecza
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Nieciecza (Home) vs Radomiak Radom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nieciecza
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom Form FAQs
What form are Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Nieciecza have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 7W 7D 8L in their last 22 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nieciecza at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Nieciecza's home record (0.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nieciecza at home: 0.82 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Nieciecza's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nieciecza
4
Draws
0
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Nieciecza have won 0, Radomiak Radom have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Nieciecza 1-1 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nieciecza at 64%, Radomiak Radom at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nieciecza) and 73% (Radomiak Radom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nieciecza have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nieciecza home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nieciecza vs Radomiak Radom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Nieciecza's games and 82% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Nieciecza's matches and 73% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Nieciecza's recent matches and 82% of Radomiak Radom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 23, as Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.16 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.44 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.77 / defence 1.25 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 22/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 29% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 42%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 46%, Radomiak Radom 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nieciecza's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nieciecza 0.95 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nieciecza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.