Legia Warszawa 1-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Legia Warszawa. The game is scheduled for Friday 2 September 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 8W 1D 1L at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Legia Warszawa, 2 for Radomiak Radom and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 0–3 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 49% versus Radomiak Radom 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 51% | Radomiak Radom 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.36 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.296 / defence 0.873 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.969 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.229. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 1.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Legia Warszawa games / 41 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 29%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Radomiak Radom 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 50% | Radomiak Radom 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.36 / Radomiak Radom 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.296 / def 0.873 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.969 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Radomiak Radom xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 44% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
Record (2 meetings): Legia Warszawa 0W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 2W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.30) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.68
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.41
1.04
Radomiak Radom xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.04 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 17W 6D 18L from 41 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 10L across 41 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.39 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 12W 1D 7L from 20 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 6W 9D 5L across 20 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.24 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 17W 6D 18L in their last 41 games (1.39 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 14W 17D 10L in their last 41 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.85 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Radomiak Radom won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 40%, Radomiak Radom 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Legia Warszawa) and 35% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 35%; Radomiak Radom in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 45% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 35% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Radomiak Radom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Radomiak Radom 1-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.36 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.04 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.30 / defence 0.87 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 29%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 51%, Radomiak Radom 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.39 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.