Radomiak Radom 0-2 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Radomiaka Radom plays host to Radomiak Radom versus Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 27 August 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games (1.17 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Korona Kielce have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Korona Kielce's away record: 1W 0D 2L from 3 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.17 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 67% versus Korona Kielce 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 50% | Korona Kielce 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.44 xG and Korona Kielce 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.070 / defence 1.185 | Korona Kielce attack 0.795 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.202. Data: 40 Radomiak Radom games / 6 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 44% | Draw 26% | Korona Kielce 30%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Korona Kielce 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Radomiak Radom 60% | Korona Kielce 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka Radom • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 44% | Draw 26% | Korona Kielce 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.44 / Korona Kielce 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.070 / def 1.185 | Korona Kielce attack 0.795 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Korona Kielce xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 2 Korona Kielce.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 44% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Korona Kielce (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.17 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.80x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.82
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.57
1.13
Korona Kielce xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.13 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 2D 1L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Korona Kielce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.83 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Korona Kielce
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Korona Kielce away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.33 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Korona Kielce go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won 4-0 on 19 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
5
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Korona Kielce have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Radomiak Radom 0-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 67%, Korona Kielce 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Radomiak Radom) and 33% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce in 33%; Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 33% of games; Korona Kielce in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Korona Kielce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 33% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 33% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Korona Kielce cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat Radomiak Radom 0-2 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.44 xG and Korona Kielce 1.13 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Korona Kielce outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.07 / defence 1.19 against Korona Kielce attack 0.80 / defence 1.06, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 44% | Draw 26% | Korona Kielce 30%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Korona Kielce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 50%, Korona Kielce 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Radomiak Radom arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Korona Kielce winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.