Radomiak Radom 2-0 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 9 as Radomiak Radom welcome Wisla Plock to Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Plock have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Wisla Plock's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Wisla Plock and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Radomiak Radom trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 55% versus Wisla Plock 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 38% | Wisla Plock 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.30 xG and Wisla Plock 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.947 / defence 1.269 | Wisla Plock attack 1.332 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.158. Wisla Plock have an above-average attack strength of 1.332 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Radomiak Radom games / 42 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 25% | Draw 22% | Wisla Plock 53%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 4.00 | Draw 4.55 | Wisla Plock 1.89. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 60% | Wisla Plock 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 25% | Draw 22% | Wisla Plock 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.30 / Wisla Plock 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.947 / def 1.269 | Wisla Plock attack 1.332 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Wisla Plock xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Radomiak Radom 2 - 0 Wisla Plock.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 25% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock?
Record (2 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 1 | Wisla Plock 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Wisla Plock (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
25%
3.96
22%
4.56
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.25
1.96
Wisla Plock xG
3.96
25%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
14%
7.08
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
4%
28.03
14%
6.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.96 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 14W 17D 11L from 42 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 20W 5D 17L across 42 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.40 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 8W 8D 5L from 21 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 6W 2D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.62 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 14W 17D 11L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 20W 5D 17L in their last 42 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Wisla Plock away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.52 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
1
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 67%, Wisla Plock at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Radomiak Radom) and 71% (Wisla Plock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Radomiak Radom's games and 67% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 71% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Wisla Plock 2-0 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.30 xG and Wisla Plock 1.96 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Wisla Plock landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.95 / defence 1.27 against Wisla Plock attack 1.33 / defence 1.06, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 25% | Draw 22% | Wisla Plock 53%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Radomiak Radom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 38%, Wisla Plock 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.40 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.