Cracovia Krakow 3-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Raków Częstochowa at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Raków Częstochowa — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 0 for Raków Częstochowa and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 40% versus Raków Częstochowa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 40% | Raków Częstochowa 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.15 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.017 / defence 0.885 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.180 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.191. Data: 41 Cracovia Krakow games / 40 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 34% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 38%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Raków Częstochowa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 20% | Raków Częstochowa 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 34% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.15 / Raków Częstochowa 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.017 / def 0.885 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.180 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Raków Częstochowa xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Cracovia Krakow 3 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 34% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (2 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 0W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
34%
2.96
28%
3.61
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.39
1.24
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
12%
8.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.24 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 15W 10D 15L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Raków Częstochowa's form line: 24W 10D 6L from 40 games, 2.05 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cracovia Krakow.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 11W 3D 5L from 19 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.78 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 15W 10D 15L in their last 40 games (1.38 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 24W 10D 6L in their last 40 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.53 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cracovia Krakow
3
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 4-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 32%, Raków Częstochowa 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Cracovia Krakow) and 53% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 32%; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 26% of games; Raków Częstochowa in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 47% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 53% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cracovia Krakow run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Raków Częstochowa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Raków Częstochowa 3-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.15 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.02 / defence 0.89 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.18 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 34% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 38%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cracovia Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 40%, Raków Częstochowa 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with Cracovia Krakow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.