Wisla Plock 1-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Gornik Zabrze travel to Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego to take on Wisla Plock. The game is scheduled for Monday 5 September 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Plock have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Gornik Zabrze — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gornik Zabrze have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gornik Zabrze's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wisla Plock 1.90 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Wisla Plock have won 1, Gornik Zabrze 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with Wisla Plock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wisla Plock trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Plock 55% and Gornik Zabrze 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 65% | Gornik Zabrze 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.91 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.334 / defence 0.918 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.394 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.179. Wisla Plock carry an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Gornik Zabrze have an above-average attack strength of 1.394 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Wisla Plock games / 40 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 47% | Draw 22% | Gornik Zabrze 31%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | Gornik Zabrze 3.23. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Plock are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 50% | Gornik Zabrze 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Monday 5 Sep 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 47% | Draw 22% | Gornik Zabrze 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Wisla Plock 1.91 / Gornik Zabrze 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.334 / def 0.918 | Gornik Zabrze attack 1.394 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Gornik Zabrze xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 5 September 2022 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze?
Wisla Plock 1 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 47% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (2 meetings): Wisla Plock 1W | Draws 0 | Gornik Zabrze 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Wisla Plock's attack rating (1.33) and Gornik Zabrze's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
47%
2.12
22%
4.52
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
3.42
1.51
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
5%
22.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.51 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 20W 4D 16L from 40 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gornik Zabrze, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 15L across 40 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.60 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wisla Plock have managed 13W 2D 4L from 19 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gornik Zabrze's away record stands at 7W 4D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.58 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Gornik Zabrze
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 20W 4D 16L in their last 40 games (1.60 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 15W 10D 15L in their last 40 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.16 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Wisla Plock
2
Draws
3
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 1, Gornik Zabrze have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 42%, Gornik Zabrze 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Wisla Plock and 79% for Gornik Zabrze. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Wisla Plock's games and 79% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Wisla Plock's matches and 79% of Gornik Zabrze's.
Do Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze finished level at 1-1 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.91 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.51 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.33 / defence 0.92 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.39 / defence 1.12, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 47% | Draw 22% | Gornik Zabrze 31%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 65%, Gornik Zabrze 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.60 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.