Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gornik Zabrze face Lech Poznan.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gornik Zabrze welcome Lech Poznan to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Ekstraklasa (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 7 February 2026 at 19:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Gornik Zabrze — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Gornik Zabrze's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lech Poznan stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gornik Zabrze at 1.50 PPG versus Lech Poznan's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Gornik Zabrze have won 2, Lech Poznan 4, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Aug 2025, ended Gornik Zabrze 1–2 Lech Poznan — a Lech Poznan win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 51% versus Lech Poznan 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 49% | Lech Poznan 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Gornik Zabrze surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Lech Poznan have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.70 xG and Lech Poznan 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.181 / defence 0.925 | Lech Poznan attack 0.902 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.242. Data: built from Gornik Zabrze's last 53 games and Lech Poznan's last 53.
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 52% | Draw 26% | Lech Poznan 22%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.92 | Draw 3.88 | Lech Poznan 4.49. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gornik Zabrze at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Gornik Zabrze's last 10 home games and Lech Poznan's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gornik Zabrze 70% (last 10 home games) | Lech Poznan 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 52% | Draw 26% | Lech Poznan 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.70 / Lech Poznan 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.181 / def 0.925 | Lech Poznan attack 0.902 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Lech Poznan xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan FAQs
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan?
Gornik Zabrze 0 - 1 Lech Poznan.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 20) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 52% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 1.18x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gornik Zabrze's last 53 games and Lech Poznan's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.88
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.73
1.04
Lech Poznan xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
4%
24.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.04 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gornik Zabrze come into this having played 53 games, going 23W 11D 19L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Lech Poznan sit at 1.81 PPG from 53 outings (28W 12D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.51 PPG, Lech Poznan on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gornik Zabrze's home form reads 14W 5D 7L across their last 26 home games, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Lech Poznan have taken 1.46 points per game from their last 26 away games (10W 8D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.85 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
Gornik Zabrze (Home) vs Lech Poznan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan Form FAQs
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 23W 11D 19L in their last 53 games (1.51 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 28W 12D 13L in their last 53 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Lech Poznan away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.81 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
5
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gornik Zabrze have won 3, Lech Poznan have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 54%, Lech Poznan 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Gornik Zabrze) and 50% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 42%; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 27% of games; Lech Poznan in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 46% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 50% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Lech Poznan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 73% of Lech Poznan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lech Poznan defy the odds to beat Gornik Zabrze 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Gornik Zabrze 0-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.70 xG and Lech Poznan 1.04 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gornik Zabrze fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.18 / defence 0.93 against Lech Poznan attack 0.90 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 52% | Draw 26% | Lech Poznan 22%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Lech Poznan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 49%, Lech Poznan 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.51 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lech Poznan win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.