Cracovia Krakow 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Cracovia Krakow take on Zaglebie Lubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 10 as Cracovia Krakow welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 12:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 3W 4D 3L at Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Zaglebie Lubin's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cracovia Krakow's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Cracovia Krakow have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 9 past contests while Zaglebie Lubin have managed just 1 wins.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 9 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Cracovia Krakow a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 51% versus Zaglebie Lubin 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 49% | Zaglebie Lubin 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.31 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.900 / defence 1.032 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.943 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.307. Data: 43 Cracovia Krakow games / 43 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 34% | Draw 34% | Zaglebie Lubin 32%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Cracovia Krakow dominate the H2H record, yet Zaglebie Lubin are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Zaglebie Lubin 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 34% | Draw 34% | Zaglebie Lubin 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.31 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.900 / def 1.032 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.943 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Zaglebie Lubin xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 12:45 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Cracovia Krakow 3 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 34% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (9 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 4W | Draws 4 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cracovia Krakow's attack rating (0.90) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.96
34%
2.94
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.58
1.27
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.96
34%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.27 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 11W 17D 15L from 43 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 14L across 43 games — 1.47 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.16 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 7W 9D 5L from 21 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 7W 5D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.30 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 11W 17D 15L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 17W 12D 14L in their last 43 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.43 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cracovia Krakow
4
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 57%, Zaglebie Lubin 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cracovia Krakow) and 48% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 57% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 48% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Zaglebie Lubin 3-1 at Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.31 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.90 / defence 1.03 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.94 / defence 0.94, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 34% | Draw 34% | Zaglebie Lubin 32%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 49%, Zaglebie Lubin 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.16 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.