Jagiellonia 1-3 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jagiellonia have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gornik Zabrze have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Gornik Zabrze arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jagiellonia lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 64% versus Gornik Zabrze 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 64% | Gornik Zabrze 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 0.89 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.919 / defence 1.091 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.968 / defence 0.623. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.307. Gornik Zabrze's defence strength of 0.623 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Jagiellonia games / 43 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 20% | Draw 35% | Gornik Zabrze 45%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 5.00 | Draw 2.86 | Gornik Zabrze 2.22. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jagiellonia 60% | Gornik Zabrze 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 20% | Draw 35% | Gornik Zabrze 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Jagiellonia 0.89 / Gornik Zabrze 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.919 / def 1.091 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.968 / def 0.623 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Gornik Zabrze xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 18:15 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Jagiellonia 1 - 3 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 20% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 45% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (9 meetings): Jagiellonia 4W | Draws 2 | Gornik Zabrze 3W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 0.92x the league average against Gornik Zabrze's defence at 0.62x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (0.97x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
20%
4.91
35%
2.85
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.27
1.38
Gornik Zabrze xG
4.91
20%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
5%
19.56
18%
5.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 14.3 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.38 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 19W 11D 12L from 42 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 11L across 42 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.79 for Gornik Zabrze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 11W 3D 7L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gornik Zabrze's away record stands at 8W 8D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.52 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 19W 11D 12L in their last 42 games (1.62 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 22W 9D 11L in their last 42 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.71 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Gornik Zabrze have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 4-1 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
4
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 4, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-3 Gornik Zabrze.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 67%, Gornik Zabrze 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Jagiellonia) and 38% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze in 43%; Gornik Zabrze in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jagiellonia's games and 48% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 38% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jagiellonia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Jagiellonia 1-3 at Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 0.89 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.38 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.97 / defence 0.62, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 20% | Draw 35% | Gornik Zabrze 45%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 64%, Gornik Zabrze 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.62 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.