Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium to take on Cracovia Krakow. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026, 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's home record at Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Legia Warszawa's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Cracovia Krakow's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cracovia Krakow register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Legia Warszawa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Cracovia Krakow, 4 for Legia Warszawa and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 52% versus Legia Warszawa 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 50% | Legia Warszawa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.40 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.043 / defence 0.989 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.163 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.329. Data: 44 Cracovia Krakow games / 44 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 31% | Draw 31% | Legia Warszawa 37%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Legia Warszawa 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Legia Warszawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 31% | Draw 31% | Legia Warszawa 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.40 / Legia Warszawa 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.043 / def 0.989 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.163 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Legia Warszawa xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 18:15 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 31% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
Record (9 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 4W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 4W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
31%
3.20
31%
3.18
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.93
1.53
Legia Warszawa xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
7%
14.76
9%
10.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.53 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 17D 15L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.61 PPG from 44 outings (18W 17D 9L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 8W 9D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.36 points per game from 22 outings (7W 9D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.43 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 12W 17D 15L in their last 44 games (1.20 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 18W 17D 9L in their last 44 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.50 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Legia Warszawa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cracovia Krakow
2
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 59%, Legia Warszawa 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cracovia Krakow) and 41% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 68% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 41% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.40 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.53 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.16 / defence 0.87, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 31% | Draw 31% | Legia Warszawa 37%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 50%, Legia Warszawa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.