Piast Gliwice 3-4 Wieczysta Kraków – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach plays host to Piast Gliwice versus Wieczysta Kraków in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Piast Gliwice have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Piast Gliwice have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Piast Gliwice are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach than their overall form suggests.
Wieczysta Kraków (all games): 0W 0D 2L across 2 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wieczysta Kraków have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Piast Gliwice's favour (0.90 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Piast Gliwice have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Wieczysta Kraków in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 2.04 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.135 / defence 1.232 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.824 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.157. Data: 37 Piast Gliwice games / 2 Wieczysta Kraków games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 56% | Draw 24% | Wieczysta Kraków 20%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Wieczysta Kraków 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Piast Gliwice (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 56% | Draw 24% | Wieczysta Kraków 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Piast Gliwice 2.04 / Wieczysta Kraków 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.135 / def 1.232 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.824 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Wieczysta Kraków xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Piast Gliwice 3 - 4 Wieczysta Kraków.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 56% chance of winning, Wieczysta Kraków a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Wieczysta Kraków will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Wieczysta Kraków?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Wieczysta Kraków in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 1.14x the league average against Wieczysta Kraków's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wieczysta Kraków's attack (0.82x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
The sample (37/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.22
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
3.21
1.17
Wieczysta Kraków xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
3%
38.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Wieczysta Kraków expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.17 for Wieczysta Kraków, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wieczysta Kraków sit at 0.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Piast Gliwice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Wieczysta Kraków — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Piast Gliwice are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Wieczysta Kraków are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Wieczysta Kraków
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Wieczysta Kraków in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Wieczysta Kraków have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
1
Wieczysta Kraków
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Wieczysta Kraków?
From 1 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 0, Wieczysta Kraków have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Wieczysta Kraków last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Piast Gliwice 3-4 Wieczysta Kraków.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Wieczysta Kraków?
Wieczysta Kraków have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Wieczysta Kraków away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Wieczysta Kraków?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Piast Gliwice's games and 100% of Wieczysta Kraków's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Wieczysta Kraków usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Piast Gliwice's matches and 100% of Wieczysta Kraków's.
Do Piast Gliwice and Wieczysta Kraków tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Wieczysta Kraków in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wieczysta Kraków defy the odds to beat Piast Gliwice 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wieczysta Kraków beat Piast Gliwice 3-4 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 2.04 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 1.17 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wieczysta Kraków outscored their 1.17 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.14 / defence 1.23 against Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.82 / defence 1.18, drawn from 37/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 56% | Draw 24% | Wieczysta Kraków 20%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Wieczysta Kraków win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 100%, Wieczysta Kraków 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Piast Gliwice arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Wieczysta Kraków winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Piast Gliwice scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wieczysta Kraków scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.