Raków Częstochowa 2-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Raków Częstochowa welcome Pogon Szczecin to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Ekstraklasa (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 11 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Raków Częstochowa stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Raków Częstochowa at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Pogon Szczecin — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Pogon Szczecin's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Raków Częstochowa) versus 1.50 (Pogon Szczecin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Raków Częstochowa: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Pogon Szczecin, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Raków Częstochowa 1–1 Pogon Szczecin — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Raków Częstochowa an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 48% versus Pogon Szczecin 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 46% | Pogon Szczecin 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.21 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.005 / defence 0.803 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.182 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.139. Pogon Szczecin bring a tight defence (rating 0.788, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Raków Częstochowa's projected output down. Data: built from Raków Częstochowa's last 65 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 65.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 37% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 31%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.69 | Draw 3.11 | Pogon Szczecin 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Raków Częstochowa 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Raków Częstochowa 50% (last 10 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 32 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 37% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.21 / Pogon Szczecin 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.005 / def 0.803 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.182 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Pogon Szczecin xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Raków Częstochowa 2 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 32) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 37% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.00x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Raków Częstochowa's last 65 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
37%
2.69
32%
3.11
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.29
1.08
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.08 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 36W 16D 13L from 65 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 32W 15D 18L across 65 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 1.91 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 23W 7D 2L from their last 32 home games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.91 PPG overall — Raków Częstochowa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 14W 9D 9L across their last 32 away games, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.75 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Raków Częstochowa (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 36W 16D 13L in their last 65 games (1.91 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 32W 15D 18L in their last 65 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.38 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Raków Częstochowa have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Raków Częstochowa
1
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Raków Częstochowa have won 7, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Raków Częstochowa 3-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 38%, Pogon Szczecin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Raków Częstochowa) and 47% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 47% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Pogon Szczecin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.21 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.08 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.00 / defence 0.80 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.18 / defence 0.79, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 37% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 31%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 46%, Pogon Szczecin 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.91 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.