Cracovia Krakow 2-3 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 44%, yet in-form Piast Gliwice provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 23). Kick-off is Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cracovia Krakow stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Piast Gliwice have recorded 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Piast Gliwice's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Piast Gliwice — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Piast Gliwice have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Cracovia Krakow.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.1 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2025, ended Cracovia Krakow 0–0 Piast Gliwice — a draw.
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 64% versus Piast Gliwice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 54% | Piast Gliwice 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.34 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.897 / defence 0.858 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.959 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.160. Data: built from Cracovia Krakow's last 56 games and Piast Gliwice's last 56.
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 44% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 25%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.28 | Draw 3.23 | Piast Gliwice 3.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Piast Gliwice (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cracovia Krakow 50% (last 10 home games) | Piast Gliwice 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 44% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.34 / Piast Gliwice 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.897 / def 0.858 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.959 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Piast Gliwice xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice FAQs
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 27 February 2026 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 3 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 23) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 44% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 0.90x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cracovia Krakow's last 56 games and Piast Gliwice's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
44%
2.28
31%
3.23
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.29
0.95
Piast Gliwice xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
7%
15.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.95 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 56 games, going 22W 18D 16L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Piast Gliwice sit at 1.27 PPG from 56 outings (18W 17D 21L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.50 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 9W 11D 7L across their last 27 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Piast Gliwice have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 27 away games (9W 5D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.07 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Cracovia Krakow (Home) vs Piast Gliwice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice Form FAQs
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 22W 18D 16L in their last 56 games (1.50 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 18W 17D 21L in their last 56 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.41 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Piast Gliwice have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Cracovia Krakow
5
Draws
5
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cracovia Krakow have won 0, Piast Gliwice have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Piast Gliwice 3-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 70%, Piast Gliwice 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cracovia Krakow) and 44% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 48% of Piast Gliwice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 44% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 70% of Piast Gliwice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Piast Gliwice defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Cracovia Krakow 2-3 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.34 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.95 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Piast Gliwice outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.90 / defence 0.86 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 44% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 25%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Piast Gliwice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 54%, Piast Gliwice 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.50 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.