Haugesund 1-3 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Haugesund Sparebank Arena plays host to Haugesund versus ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 26 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Haugesund have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Haugesund have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Sparebank Arena than their overall form suggests.
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Haugesund's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of ODD Ballklubb's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Haugesund 0W, ODD Ballklubb 1W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 2–4 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 55% versus ODD Ballklubb 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 63% | ODD Ballklubb 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 2.01 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.976 / defence 0.936 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.817 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.855 / away 1.311. Data: 49 Haugesund games / 49 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 59% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 16%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | ODD Ballklubb 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Haugesund (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 40% | ODD Ballklubb 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 59% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Haugesund 2.01 / ODD Ballklubb 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.976 / def 0.936 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.817 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.855 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.00
ODD Ballklubb xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Haugesund 1 - 3 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 59% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (3 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 2 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (0.82x) against Haugesund's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
59%
1.71
25%
3.93
16%
6.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.01
1.00
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
6.25
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
13%
7.48
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
2%
46.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.00 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Haugesund come into this having played 49 games, going 19W 10D 20L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.35 PPG from 49 outings (19W 9D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Haugesund against 1.35 for ODD Ballklubb. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Haugesund's home form reads 13W 4D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (7W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Haugesund are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.61 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 19W 10D 20L in their last 49 games (1.37 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 19W 9D 21L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Haugesund's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.79 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 December 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Haugesund go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 0-4 on 16 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haugesund
4
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 4, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 1 December 2024, when Haugesund 2-1 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 50%, ODD Ballklubb 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Haugesund and 58% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Haugesund's recent matches and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Haugesund's matches and 58% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Haugesund 1-3 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 2.01 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.00 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.0 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.82 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 59% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 16%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a ODD Ballklubb win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 63%, ODD Ballklubb 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.37 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.