Stromsgodset 3-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 9 as Stromsgodset welcome Viking to Marienlyst Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stromsgodset have posted 5W 2D 3L at Marienlyst Stadion — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Viking have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Viking are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stromsgodset, 1 for Viking and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Viking in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stromsgodset 58% and Viking 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stromsgodset 62% | Viking 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.69 xG and Viking 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.163 / defence 1.296 | Viking attack 1.124 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.359. Data: 39 Stromsgodset games / 40 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 33% | Draw 22% | Viking 45%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 3.03 | Draw 4.55 | Viking 2.22. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.67 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 50% | Viking 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 33% | Draw 22% | Viking 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Stromsgodset 1.69 / Viking 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.163 / def 1.296 | Viking attack 1.124 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Viking (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Viking xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Viking kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 May 2022 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Stromsgodset 3 - 2 Viking.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Viking part of?
Stromsgodset vs Viking is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 33% chance of winning, Viking a 45% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Stromsgodset and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Viking?
Record (3 meetings): Stromsgodset 0W | Draws 2 | Viking 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Viking in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Viking (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
33%
3.01
22%
4.55
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.67
1.98
Viking xG
3.01
33%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.40
Clean Sheet
14%
7.24
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
5%
21.80
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.98 for Viking, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 16W 19D 25L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Viking's form line: 29W 14D 17L from 60 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (11W 10D 9L).
On the road, Viking have gone 13W 7D 10L from 30 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.90 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 68%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Viking in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 16W 19D 25L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Viking have gone 29W 14D 17L in their last 60 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.43 PPG; Viking away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Viking have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2024, when Viking won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Viking specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
5
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 2, Viking have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 60%, Viking 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Stromsgodset and 70% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Stromsgodset's games and 57% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Stromsgodset's matches and 70% of Viking's.
Do Stromsgodset and Viking tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Viking in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stromsgodset defy the odds to beat Viking 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Viking 3-2 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.69 xG and Viking 1.98 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.16 / defence 1.30 against Viking attack 1.12 / defence 1.01, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 33% | Draw 22% | Viking 45%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Stromsgodset win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 62%, Viking 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Stromsgodset winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Viking (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.