Ham-Kam 1-2 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ham-Kam host ODD Ballklubb at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
ODD Ballklubb away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.25 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.897 / defence 0.873 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.646 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.341. Data: 8 Ham-Kam games / 39 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 47% | Draw 30% | ODD Ballklubb 22%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | ODD Ballklubb 4.55. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 47% | Draw 30% | ODD Ballklubb 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Ham-Kam 1.25 / ODD Ballklubb 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.897 / def 0.873 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.646 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
0.76
ODD Ballklubb xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 May 2022 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb?
Ham-Kam 1 - 2 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 47% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. ODD Ballklubb away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.28
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.00
0.76
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
6%
15.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 0.76 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Pre-Season
ODD Ballklubb
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ham-Kam go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
0
Draws
4
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb?
From 6 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 2, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2024, when Ham-Kam 1-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as ODD Ballklubb defy the odds to beat Ham-Kam 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Ham-Kam 1-2 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.25 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.76 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.90 / defence 0.87 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.65 / defence 0.97, drawn from 8/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 47% | Draw 30% | ODD Ballklubb 22%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a ODD Ballklubb win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.