Stabaek 3-0 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kristiansund BK at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kristiansund BK travel to Nadderud Stadion to take on Stabaek in Eliteserien (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Stabaek have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Stabaek have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kristiansund BK stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kristiansund BK's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kristiansund BK are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Stabaek, 1 for Kristiansund BK and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Aug 2021, ended Stabaek 1–5 Kristiansund BK — a Kristiansund BK win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 55% versus Kristiansund BK 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 62% | Kristiansund BK 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stabaek surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Kristiansund BK have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.37 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.686 / defence 1.285 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.933 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.235. Stabaek's attack rating of 0.686 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.37. Stabaek's defence rating of 1.285 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kristiansund BK's projected output up. Data: built from Stabaek's last 56 games and Kristiansund BK's last 56.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 33% | Draw 30% | Kristiansund BK 37%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.08 | Draw 3.32 | Kristiansund BK 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kristiansund BK at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stabaek's last 10 home games and Kristiansund BK's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stabaek 50% (last 10 home games) | Kristiansund BK 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 27 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 33% | Draw 30% | Kristiansund BK 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Stabaek 1.37 / Kristiansund BK 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.686 / def 1.285 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.933 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Kristiansund BK xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK FAQs
What time does Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Stabaek 3 - 0 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 27) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 33% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Stabaek and Kristiansund BK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stabaek's attack at 0.69x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stabaek's last 56 games and Kristiansund BK's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
33%
3.08
30%
3.32
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.85
1.48
Kristiansund BK xG
3.08
33%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
7%
13.51
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.48 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stabaek's recent record stands at 14W 18D 24L from 56 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 25W 16D 15L across 56 games — 1.62 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kristiansund BK by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stabaek heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stabaek have managed 8W 9D 11L from their last 28 home games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 9W 10D 9L across their last 28 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stabaek are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.64 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 64%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Stabaek (Home) vs Kristiansund BK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stabaek
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK Form FAQs
What form are Stabaek and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 14W 18D 24L in their last 56 games (1.07 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 25W 16D 15L in their last 56 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Kristiansund BK's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.18 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 21 November 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Aug 2021, when Kristiansund BK won Kristiansund BK 5-1 Stabaek.
Stabaek's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stabaek
1
Draws
1
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Kristiansund BK?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Stabaek have won 2, Kristiansund BK have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 November 2021: Stabaek 3-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Kristiansund BK?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 43%, Kristiansund BK 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stabaek) and 64% (Kristiansund BK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 39% of games; Kristiansund BK in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stabaek and Kristiansund BK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stabaek's recent matches and 64% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stabaek and Kristiansund BK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Stabaek's matches and 64% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Stabaek and Kristiansund BK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Stabaek's recent matches and 64% of Kristiansund BK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stabaek run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Kristiansund BK 3-0 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.37 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.48 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stabaek beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kristiansund BK landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.69 / defence 1.28 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.93 / defence 1.14, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 33% | Draw 30% | Kristiansund BK 37%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Stabaek win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 62%, Kristiansund BK 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Kristiansund BK arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Stabaek winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.