Stabaek 3-0 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kristiansund BK at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Kristiansund BK travel to Nadderud Stadion to take on Stabaek. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stabaek have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stabaek have posted 2W 2D 6L at Nadderud Stadion — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kristiansund BK are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Stabaek, 1 for Kristiansund BK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 1–5 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 55% versus Kristiansund BK 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 62% | Kristiansund BK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.37 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.686 / defence 1.285 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.933 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.235. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Stabaek games / 56 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 33% | Draw 30% | Kristiansund BK 37%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Kristiansund BK 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kristiansund BK at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stabaek 50% | Kristiansund BK 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 33% | Draw 30% | Kristiansund BK 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Stabaek 1.37 / Kristiansund BK 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.686 / def 1.285 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.933 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Kristiansund BK xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Stabaek 3 - 0 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 33% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Stabaek and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Kristiansund BK?
Record (3 meetings): Stabaek 1W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Stabaek and Kristiansund BK in?
Stabaek (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stabaek's attack at 0.69x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
33%
3.08
30%
3.32
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.85
1.48
Kristiansund BK xG
3.08
33%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
7%
13.51
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.48 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stabaek's recent record stands at 14W 18D 24L from 56 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 25W 16D 15L across 56 games — 1.62 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kristiansund BK by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stabaek heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stabaek have managed 8W 9D 11L from 28 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 9W 10D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stabaek are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.64 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 14W 18D 24L in their last 56 games (1.07 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 25W 16D 15L in their last 56 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Kristiansund BK's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.18 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stabaek and Kristiansund BK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Kristiansund BK won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stabaek's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stabaek
1
Draws
1
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Kristiansund BK?
From 4 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 2, Kristiansund BK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2021, when Stabaek 3-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Kristiansund BK?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 43%, Kristiansund BK 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stabaek) and 64% (Kristiansund BK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 39% of games; Kristiansund BK in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stabaek's recent matches and 64% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Stabaek's matches and 64% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Stabaek and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stabaek run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Kristiansund BK 3-0 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.37 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.48 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stabaek beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kristiansund BK landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.69 / defence 1.28 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.93 / defence 1.14, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 33% | Draw 30% | Kristiansund BK 37%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Stabaek win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 62%, Kristiansund BK 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Kristiansund BK arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Stabaek winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.