Sandefjord vs Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Mjondalen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sandefjord Arena plays host to Sandefjord versus Mjondalen in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 6 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sandefjord's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sandefjord Arena, Sandefjord have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sandefjord Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Sandefjord Arena than their overall form suggests.
Mjondalen have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Sandefjord, 0.70 for Mjondalen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Sandefjord 2W, Mjondalen 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Mjondalen — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 47% versus Mjondalen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 53% | Mjondalen 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.76 xG and Mjondalen 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.768 / defence 0.859 | Mjondalen attack 0.752 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.208. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mjondalen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Sandefjord games / 55 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 59% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 14%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Mjondalen 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sandefjord are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 30% | Mjondalen 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 59% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Sandefjord 1.76 / Mjondalen 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.768 / def 0.859 | Mjondalen attack 0.752 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Mjondalen xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Mjondalen kick off?
Sandefjord vs Mjondalen kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Sandefjord Arena.
Where is Sandefjord vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Mjondalen part of?
Sandefjord vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 59% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sandefjord and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Mjondalen?
Record (4 meetings): Sandefjord 2W | Draws 1 | Mjondalen 1W.
What form are Sandefjord and Mjondalen in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sandefjord's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Mjondalen's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Mjondalen's attack (0.75x) against Sandefjord's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.2%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
59%
1.71
27%
3.67
14%
7.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.54
0.78
Mjondalen xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
7.09
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
2%
41.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 10.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Sandefjord and 0.78 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Mjondalen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sandefjord come into this having played 55 games, going 17W 13D 25L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjondalen sit at 0.87 PPG from 55 outings (12W 12D 31L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Sandefjord against 0.87 for Mjondalen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sandefjord's home form reads 8W 10D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjondalen have taken 0.59 points per game from 27 outings (3W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sandefjord are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.07 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 17W 13D 25L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 12W 12D 31L in their last 55 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Mjondalen away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.26 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Mjondalen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Mjondalen in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjondalen won 0-3 on 16 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
1
Draws
1
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 2, Mjondalen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2021, when Mjondalen 1-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Mjondalen?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 37%, Mjondalen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sandefjord) and 48% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 37% of games; Mjondalen in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Mjondalen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 56% of Mjondalen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sandefjord's recent games and 48% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord and Mjondalen finished level at 0-0 at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.76 xG and Mjondalen 0.78 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.77 / defence 0.86 against Mjondalen attack 0.75 / defence 1.28, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 59% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 14%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 53%, Mjondalen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjondalen's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.16 PPG, Mjondalen 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.