Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 28 as Lillestrom welcome Kristiansund BK to Åråsen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lillestrom — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Lillestrom) versus 1.40 (Kristiansund BK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lillestrom, 1 for Kristiansund BK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lillestrom in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 68% versus Kristiansund BK 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 64% | Kristiansund BK 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.61 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.801 / defence 0.945 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.739 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.208. Data: 25 Lillestrom games / 55 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 53% | Draw 29% | Kristiansund BK 17%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Kristiansund BK 5.88. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 50% | Kristiansund BK 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 53% | Draw 29% | Kristiansund BK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Lillestrom 1.61 / Kristiansund BK 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.801 / def 0.945 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.739 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Kristiansund BK xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
Where is Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 53% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK?
Record (2 meetings): Lillestrom 0W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
53%
1.88
29%
3.39
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.45
0.84
Kristiansund BK xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
3%
28.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.7 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Lillestrom and 0.84 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 12W 5D 8L from 25 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 9L across 25 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lillestrom on 1.64 PPG, Kristiansund BK on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 6W 2D 4L from 12 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 3W 2D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kristiansund BK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lillestrom are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.24 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kristiansund BK in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 12W 5D 8L in their last 25 games (1.64 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 12W 4D 9L in their last 25 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.67 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Lillestrom or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Kristiansund BK have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Lillestrom's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Lillestrom
2
Draws
4
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK?
From 7 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 1, Kristiansund BK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Lillestrom 1-2 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lillestrom see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Kristiansund BK see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 50%, Kristiansund BK 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lillestrom) and 58% (Kristiansund BK).
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Kristiansund BK in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 33% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lillestrom's recent games and 58% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Lillestrom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK finished level at 0-0 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.61 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.84 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Kristiansund BK landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.80 / defence 0.94 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.74 / defence 1.12, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 53% | Draw 29% | Kristiansund BK 17%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 64%, Kristiansund BK 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.64 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.