Stromsgodset 0-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stromsgodset face Viking.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Stromsgodset welcome Viking to Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 7). Kick-off is Sunday 12 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stromsgodset stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Stromsgodset have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Viking have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Viking have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stromsgodset 1.60 PPG, Viking 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Stromsgodset have won 2, Viking 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Stromsgodset 1–0 Viking — a Stromsgodset win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Viking in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 48% versus Viking 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 55% | Viking 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.48 xG and Viking 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.052 / defence 0.910 | Viking attack 1.054 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.363. Data: built from Stromsgodset's last 36 games and Viking's last 36.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 41% | Draw 25% | Viking 33%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.42 | Draw 3.96 | Viking 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Stromsgodset's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stromsgodset 60% (last 10 home games) | Viking 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 7 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 41% | Draw 25% | Viking 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Stromsgodset 1.48 / Viking 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.052 / def 0.910 | Viking attack 1.054 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Viking xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stromsgodset vs Viking FAQs
What time does Stromsgodset vs Viking kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Stromsgodset 0 - 1 Viking.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Viking part of?
Stromsgodset vs Viking is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 7) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 41% chance of winning, Viking a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Stromsgodset and Viking will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stromsgodset vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stromsgodset's last 36 games and Viking's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
41%
2.42
25%
3.96
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.79
1.31
Viking xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
8%
13.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stromsgodset vs Viking Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.31 for Viking, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 22W 9D 29L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Viking's form line: 27W 12D 21L from 60 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.25 PPG, Viking on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 30 home games (15W 3D 12L).
On the road, Viking have gone 12W 5D 13L from their last 30 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.82 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 68%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
Stromsgodset (Home) vs Viking (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Stromsgodset vs Viking Form FAQs
What form are Stromsgodset and Viking in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 22W 9D 29L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while Viking have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Viking away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.60 PPG; Viking away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from July 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 2 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Viking have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Aug 2024, when Viking won Viking 5-2 Stromsgodset.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Viking specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
5
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Stromsgodset vs Viking H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Viking?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stromsgodset have won 2, Viking have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Viking last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2025: Stromsgodset 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 57%, Viking 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Stromsgodset and 67% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stromsgodset vs Viking Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stromsgodset and Viking matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Stromsgodset's games and 67% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stromsgodset and Viking matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Stromsgodset's matches and 67% of Viking's.
Do Stromsgodset and Viking matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 67% of Viking's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Viking defy the odds to beat Stromsgodset 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Stromsgodset 0-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.48 xG and Viking 1.31 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stromsgodset fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.05 / defence 0.91 against Viking attack 1.05 / defence 1.17, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 41% | Draw 25% | Viking 33%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 55%, Viking 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.25 PPG, Viking 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.