Sandefjord 4-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 7 as Sandefjord welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Jotun Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sandefjord's home record at Jotun Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.10 (Sarpsborg 08 FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sandefjord register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sandefjord, 3 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 5.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 5–1 with Sandefjord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 62% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 73% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.38 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.135 / defence 0.928 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.068 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.363. Data: 35 Sandefjord games / 36 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 38% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 37%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 60% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 38% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Sandefjord 1.38 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.135 / def 0.928 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.068 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sandefjord 4 - 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 38% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (5 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3W.
What form are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 1.14x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
38%
2.65
26%
3.90
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.73
1.35
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
9%
10.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.35 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord come into this having played 60 games, going 14W 13D 33L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Sarpsborg 08 FF sit at 1.37 PPG from 60 outings (24W 10D 26L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sandefjord's home form reads 8W 11D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken 1.17 points per game from 30 outings (10W 5D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.87 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 70%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 14W 13D 33L in their last 60 games (0.92 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 24W 10D 26L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.17 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sandefjord
1
Draws
6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sandefjord 0-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 70%, Sarpsborg 08 FF at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sandefjord and 67% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sandefjord's games and 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sandefjord's matches and 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sandefjord run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-1 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.38 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.35 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.14 / defence 0.93 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 38% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 37%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 73%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Sandefjord winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.