KFUM Oslo 1-4 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fredrikstad make the trip to KFUM Arena to face KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 0.69 xG and Fredrikstad 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.741 / defence 1.128 | Fredrikstad attack 1.001 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.363. KFUM Oslo's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fredrikstad's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 6 KFUM Oslo games / 6 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 17% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 58%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 5.88 | Draw 3.85 | Fredrikstad 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 17% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 39% | xG KFUM Oslo 0.69 / Fredrikstad 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.741 / def 1.128 | Fredrikstad attack 1.001 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Fredrikstad xG
39%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad?
KFUM Oslo 1 - 4 Fredrikstad.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 17% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 58% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
KFUM Oslo's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Fredrikstad's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.69. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (1.00x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 0-2 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
17%
5.97
26%
3.90
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
2.23
1.54
Fredrikstad xG
5.97
17%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
4%
27.84
29%
3.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 16.5 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.54 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fredrikstad won 1-4 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
KFUM Oslo
1
Draws
3
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, KFUM Oslo have won 1, Fredrikstad have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Fredrikstad 3-1 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between KFUM Oslo and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Fredrikstad run riot with a 1-4 hammering of KFUM Oslo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat KFUM Oslo 1-4 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 0.69 xG and Fredrikstad 1.54 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Fredrikstad outscored their 1.54 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.74 / defence 1.13 against Fredrikstad attack 1.00 / defence 0.78, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 17% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 58%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.