Start 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Start at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Sarpsborg 08 FF travel to Sparebanken Sør Arena to take on Start. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 November 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Start have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Start's home record at Sparebanken Sør Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Start are significantly better at Sparebanken Sør Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Start 1.00 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Start have won 0, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2020, ended 0–1 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Start in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Start 48% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Start 52% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Start 1.49 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Start attack 0.920 / defence 1.084 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.582 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.369. Data: 23 Start games / 23 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Start 52% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 22%. Fair-value odds: Start 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 4.55. Start hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Start are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Start offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Start 40% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sparebanken Sør Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Start 52% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Start 1.49 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Start attack 0.920 / def 1.084 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.582 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Start (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Start xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 8 November 2020 at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What was the final score in Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Start 3 - 2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What competition is Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Start a 52% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Start the favourite.
Will both teams score in Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Start and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (1 meetings): Start 0W | Draws 0 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W.
What form are Start and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Start (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Start's attack rating (0.92) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Start's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Start Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.74
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Start xG
Total xG
2.35
0.86
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
5%
20.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Start and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Start and 0.86 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Start have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 4W 7D 12L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 8W 4D 11L from 23 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Start on 0.83 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Start have posted 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — Start are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 3D 6L from 11 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sarpsborg 08 FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Start come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Start are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.17 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Start
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Start and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Start have gone 4W 7D 12L in their last 23 games (0.83 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 4D 11L in their last 23 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Start at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Start's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Start at home: 1.36 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Start or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Start have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Start
1
Draws
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 3 meetings on record, Start have won 1, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Start and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Start.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Start 46%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Start) and 46% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Start keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Start have failed to score in 36% of games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Start home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Start play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Start's recent matches and 46% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Start's recent games and 46% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Start and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Start have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Start edge out Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Start beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2 at Sparebanken Sør Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Start 1.49 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.86 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Start beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Start attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.58 / defence 1.19, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Start 52% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 22%, with Start to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Start 52%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Start's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Start 0.83 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Start win broke the near-deadlock. Start (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.