Bodo/Glimt 7-0 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 86% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Aspmyra Stadion plays host to Bodo/Glimt versus Aalesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 8 November 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Aalesund (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Aalesund have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 2.40 PPG lead over Aalesund (2.70 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bodo/Glimt 1W, Aalesund 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2020, ended 6–1 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 70%.
Aalesund half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 65%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 74% and Aalesund 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 91% | Aalesund 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 3.56 xG and Aalesund 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.595 / defence 0.846 | Aalesund attack 0.718 / defence 1.636. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.369. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.595 — their λ of 3.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.636 — this is suppressing Bodo/Glimt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Bodo/Glimt games / 23 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 86% | Draw 9% | Aalesund 5%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.16 | Draw 11.11 | Aalesund 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (86%) — a 81pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 4.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 86% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Aalesund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 86% | Draw 9% | Aalesund 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 55% | xG Bodo/Glimt 3.56 / Aalesund 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.595 / def 0.846 | Aalesund attack 0.718 / def 1.636 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (86%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.56
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Aalesund xG
55%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 8 November 2020 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Bodo/Glimt 7 - 0 Aalesund.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 86% chance of winning, Aalesund a 5% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund?
Record (1 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 1W | Draws 0 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.59x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (1.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.56. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.72x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 9.3%. Close behind: 4-0 (8.3%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
86%
1.16
9%
11.33
5%
20.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 0
8.3%
Home win
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.56
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
4.39
0.83
Aalesund xG
1.16
86%
Home win
11.33
9%
Draw
20.96
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
3%
35.20
Win to Nil
38%
2.66
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 3.56 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.83 for Aalesund, a combined total of 4.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 86%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 20W 2D 1L from 23 games, a 2.70 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aalesund, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 17L across 23 games — 0.43 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 2.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aalesund heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 11W 0D 0L from 11 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aalesund's away record stands at 1W 2D 8L across 11 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.30 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.13 scored and 2.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Aalesund in 70%.
Last 23 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 20W 2D 1L in their last 23 games (2.70 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 2W 4D 17L in their last 23 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Aalesund away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 7-0 on 8 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
0
Draws
0
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund?
From 7 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, Aalesund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 82% of the time.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 64%, Aalesund 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Bodo/Glimt and 64% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Aalesund in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Aalesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 54% of Aalesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 64% of Aalesund's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Aalesund tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Aalesund 7-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 3.56 xG and Aalesund 0.83 xG, a combined 4.39. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aalesund landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.59 / defence 0.85 against Aalesund attack 0.72 / defence 1.64, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 86% | Draw 9% | Aalesund 5%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 86%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 85% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 91%, Aalesund 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Aalesund's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 0.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 3.55 average — above their attacking norm. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 2.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.