Mjondalen 3-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Consto Arena plays host to Mjondalen versus Stromsgodset in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 7 November 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mjondalen's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjondalen have posted 2W 0D 8L at Consto Arena — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Stromsgodset have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Mjondalen, 0.90 for Stromsgodset — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Mjondalen 0W, Stromsgodset 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Jul 2020, ended 1–2 with Stromsgodset winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mjondalen — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 44% versus Stromsgodset 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 44% | Stromsgodset 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.09 xG and Stromsgodset 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.670 / defence 1.223 | Stromsgodset attack 0.832 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.373. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.670 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Mjondalen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Mjondalen games / 23 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 29% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 44%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Stromsgodset 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stromsgodset are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Mjondalen 40% | Stromsgodset 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 29% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Mjondalen 1.09 / Stromsgodset 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.670 / def 1.223 | Stromsgodset attack 0.832 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Stromsgodset xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 November 2020 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset?
Mjondalen 3 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset part of?
Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 29% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mjondalen and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Stromsgodset?
Record (1 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 0 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are Mjondalen and Stromsgodset in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mjondalen's attack at 0.67x the league average against Stromsgodset's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (0.83x) against Mjondalen's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
29%
3.43
27%
3.68
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.49
1.40
Stromsgodset xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
7%
13.86
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.40 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mjondalen's recent record stands at 5W 2D 16L from 23 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 5W 9D 9L across 23 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.74 PPG for Mjondalen against 1.04 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mjondalen have managed 3W 0D 8L from 11 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 2W 4D 5L across 11 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Mjondalen are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.30 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 5W 2D 16L in their last 23 games (0.74 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 5W 9D 9L in their last 23 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Stromsgodset away?
Stromsgodset's away record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 0.82 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjondalen won 3-0 on 7 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjondalen have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mjondalen
1
Draws
1
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Stromsgodset?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 2, Stromsgodset have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2021, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Stromsgodset?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 36%, Stromsgodset 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Mjondalen) and 64% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen have failed to score in 36% of games; Stromsgodset in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 64% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Mjondalen's recent games and 64% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjondalen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen beat Stromsgodset 3-0 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.09 xG and Stromsgodset 1.40 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mjondalen beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stromsgodset landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.67 / defence 1.22 against Stromsgodset attack 0.83 / defence 1.21, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 29% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 44%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Mjondalen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 44%, Stromsgodset 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjondalen 0.74 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjondalen win broke the near-deadlock. Mjondalen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.