ODD Ballklubb 1-2 Start – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Start fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Start make the trip to Skagerak Arena to face ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 November 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
ODD Ballklubb (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's home record at Skagerak Arena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Start's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Start have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.30 for Start. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — ODD Ballklubb lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2020, ended 5–0 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
ODD Ballklubb half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Start half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 46% versus Start 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 58% | Start 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 2.21 xG and Start 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.136 / defence 0.970 | Start attack 0.581 / defence 1.404. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.340. Start bring a strong defensive rating of 1.404 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 ODD Ballklubb games / 24 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Draw 19% | Start 11%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Start 9.09. The model has a clear lean to ODD Ballklubb (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 50% | Start 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Draw 19% | Start 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 48% | xG ODD Ballklubb 2.21 / Start 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.136 / def 0.970 | Start attack 0.581 / def 1.404 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Start xG
48%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Start kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Start kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 November 2020 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Start?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 2 Start.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Start part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Start is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Start?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 70% chance of winning, Start a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Start?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Start will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Start?
Record (1 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 0 | Start 0W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Start in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Start (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.14x the league average against Start's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Start's attack (0.58x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 1-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
70%
1.43
19%
5.18
11%
9.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.97
0.76
Start xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
9.31
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
11%
9.12
Win to Nil
33%
3.04
1%
84.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Start expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 0.76 for Start, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Start?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 13W 3D 8L from 24 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Start, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 12L across 24 games — 0.92 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours ODD Ballklubb by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Start heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 8W 2D 1L from 11 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — ODD Ballklubb are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Start's away record stands at 0W 3D 8L across 11 trips, a 0.27 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Start's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Start are on 1.17 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Start
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Start in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 3D 8L in their last 24 games (1.75 PPG), while Start have gone 5W 7D 12L in their last 24 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Start away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 2.36 PPG; Start away: 0.27 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Start been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Start in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 November 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
ODD Ballklubb
0
Draws
1
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Start?
From 2 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, Start have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Start last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2020, when ODD Ballklubb 1-2 Start.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 54%, Start 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (ODD Ballklubb) and 46% (Start).
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Start in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Start?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 46% of Start's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Start usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of ODD Ballklubb's recent games and 46% of Start's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Start tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Start in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Start defy the odds to beat ODD Ballklubb 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Start beat ODD Ballklubb 1-2 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 2.21 xG and Start 0.76 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Start outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.14 / defence 0.97 against Start attack 0.58 / defence 1.40, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 70% | Draw 19% | Start 11%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Start win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 58%, Start 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Start's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Start winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Start (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.