Rosenborg 1-0 Start – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Start encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 23 as Rosenborg welcome Start to Lerkendal Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 November 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rosenborg have posted 7W 2D 1L at Lerkendal Stadion — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Start — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Start have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Rosenborg, 0 for Start and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2020, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games).
Start in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 59% versus Start 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 68% | Start 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.75 xG and Start 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.312 / defence 1.047 | Start attack 0.624 / defence 1.542. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.373. Rosenborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 2.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Start bring a strong defensive rating of 1.542 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Rosenborg games / 22 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 76% | Draw 14% | Start 10%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.32 | Draw 7.14 | Start 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (76%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 80% | Start 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 76% | Draw 14% | Start 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 55% | xG Rosenborg 2.75 / Start 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.312 / def 1.047 | Start attack 0.624 / def 1.542 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.75
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Start xG
55%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Start kick off?
Rosenborg vs Start kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 1 November 2020 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Start?
Rosenborg 1 - 0 Start.
Where is Rosenborg vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Start part of?
Rosenborg vs Start is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 76% chance of winning, Start a 10% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Start?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rosenborg and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Start?
Record (1 meetings): Rosenborg 0W | Draws 1 | Start 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Start in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Start (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.31x the league average against Start's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 2.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Start's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
76%
1.31
14%
6.94
10%
10.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.75
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.65
0.90
Start xG
1.31
76%
Home win
6.94
14%
Draw
10.49
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
6%
15.64
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
1%
164.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Start expected to score?
The model projects 2.75 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.90 for Start, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Start?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rosenborg come into this having played 22 games, going 12W 6D 4L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Start sit at 0.86 PPG from 22 outings (4W 7D 11L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.05 PPG clear of Start — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Rosenborg's home form reads 7W 2D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Start have taken 0.30 points per game from 10 outings (0W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Start's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rosenborg are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Start are on 1.14 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Start
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Start in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 12W 6D 4L in their last 22 games (1.91 PPG), while Start have gone 4W 7D 11L in their last 22 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Start away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.30 PPG; Start away: 0.30 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Start been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Start in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Rosenborg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jul 2026, when Rosenborg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
1
Draws
0
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Start?
From 3 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, Start have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Start last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Start 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Start?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rosenborg at 80%, Start at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Rosenborg and 50% for Start. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Start in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Start?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Rosenborg's games and 50% of Start's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Start usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Rosenborg's matches and 50% of Start's.
Do Rosenborg and Start tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Start in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Start 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Start 1-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.75 xG and Start 0.90 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rosenborg fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Start landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.31 / defence 1.05 against Start attack 0.62 / defence 1.54, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 76% | Draw 14% | Start 10%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 68%, Start 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Start's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Start (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.