Stabaek 2-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stabaek face Valerenga.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Stabaek welcome Valerenga to Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 8). Kick-off is Monday 29 May 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Stabaek have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Stabaek at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Valerenga — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valerenga away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Stabaek) versus 1.10 (Valerenga). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Stabaek's games and 70% of Valerenga's (from Stabaek's last 10 home games and Valerenga's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Stabaek have won 0, Valerenga 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2021, ended Stabaek 1–3 Valerenga — a Valerenga win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 60% versus Valerenga 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 73% | Valerenga 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.28 xG and Valerenga 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.842 / defence 0.849 | Valerenga attack 1.138 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.187. Data: built from Stabaek's last 7 games and Valerenga's last 37.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 38% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 31%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.63 | Draw 3.28 | Valerenga 3.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stabaek as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stabaek offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Stabaek's last 10 home games and Valerenga's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stabaek 60% (last 10 home games) | Valerenga 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 8 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 38% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Stabaek 1.28 / Valerenga 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.842 / def 0.849 | Valerenga attack 1.138 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Valerenga xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stabaek vs Valerenga FAQs
What time does Stabaek vs Valerenga kick off?
Stabaek vs Valerenga kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 29 May 2023 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Stabaek 2 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Stabaek vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Valerenga part of?
Stabaek vs Valerenga is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 8) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 38% chance of winning, Valerenga a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stabaek and Valerenga will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stabaek vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stabaek's last 7 games and Valerenga's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
38%
2.63
30%
3.28
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.43
1.15
Valerenga xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stabaek vs Valerenga Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.15 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stabaek's recent record stands at 6W 7D 17L from 30 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 13W 5D 12L across 30 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stabaek heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stabaek have managed 4W 3D 8L from their last 15 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 4W 3D 8L across their last 15 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Stabaek are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.73 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stabaek have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Pre-Season
Valerenga
Current Season
Stabaek (Home) vs Valerenga (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stabaek
Pre-Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Stabaek vs Valerenga Form FAQs
What form are Stabaek and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 6W 7D 17L in their last 30 games (0.83 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 13W 5D 12L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Valerenga away?
Stabaek's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.00 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from June 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 12 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stabaek's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
3
Draws
2
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Stabaek vs Valerenga H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Valerenga?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stabaek have won 1, Valerenga have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Valerenga last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 November 2023: Valerenga 0-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 47%, Valerenga 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Stabaek and 60% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 40% of games; Valerenga in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stabaek vs Valerenga Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stabaek and Valerenga matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Stabaek's games and 67% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stabaek and Valerenga matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Stabaek's matches and 60% of Valerenga's.
Do Stabaek and Valerenga matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Stabaek's recent matches and 73% of Valerenga's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stabaek edge out Valerenga 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Valerenga 2-1 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.28 xG and Valerenga 1.15 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.84 / defence 0.85 against Valerenga attack 1.14 / defence 0.96, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 38% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 31%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 73%, Valerenga 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Stabaek winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.