Valerenga 1-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Valerenga face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 9 as Valerenga welcome Bodo/Glimt to Intility Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 June 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Valerenga — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Intility Arena, Valerenga have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Intility Arena. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Valerenga are significantly better at Intility Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Bodo/Glimt away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Valerenga's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bodo/Glimt have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Valerenga.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 0–6 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Valerenga trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 63% and Bodo/Glimt 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 60% | Bodo/Glimt 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.50 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.111 / defence 1.216 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.507 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.163. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.507 — the away xG of 2.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Valerenga games / 39 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 25% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 50%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Bodo/Glimt 2.00. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.63 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 40% | Bodo/Glimt 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 25% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Valerenga 1.50 / Bodo/Glimt 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.111 / def 1.216 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.507 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Bodo/Glimt xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Valerenga 1 - 3 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 25% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (6 meetings): Valerenga 0W | Draws 2 | Bodo/Glimt 4W.
What form are Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt in?
Valerenga (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Valerenga's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 2.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
25%
3.99
25%
4.07
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.63
2.13
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.99
25%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
12%
8.42
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
3%
33.63
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Valerenga and 2.13 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga's recent record stands at 24W 17D 19L from 60 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 36W 15D 9L across 60 games — 2.05 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valerenga heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 16W 9D 5L from 30 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 18W 5D 7L across 30 trips, a 1.97 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.42 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 24W 17D 19L in their last 60 games (1.48 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 36W 15D 9L in their last 60 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 1.90 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Valerenga or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valerenga
2
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Valerenga 3-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 60%, Bodo/Glimt 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Valerenga and 60% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Valerenga's games and 57% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Valerenga's matches and 60% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Valerenga.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Valerenga 1-3 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.50 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.13 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 2.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.11 / defence 1.22 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.51 / defence 0.80, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 25% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 50%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 60%, Bodo/Glimt 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.