Stabaek 0-1 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stabaek host Stromsgodset at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 3 July 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stabaek — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's home record at Nadderud Stadion: 3W 3D 0L from 6 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Nadderud Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Stabaek are significantly better at Nadderud Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Stromsgodset have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stabaek at 1.40 PPG versus Stromsgodset's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Stabaek have won 2, Stromsgodset 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stabaek in-play tendencies (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 64% versus Stromsgodset 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 73% | Stromsgodset 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.60 xG and Stromsgodset 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.912 / defence 0.957 | Stromsgodset attack 0.988 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.728 / away 1.236. Data: 11 Stabaek games / 41 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 47% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 28%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Stromsgodset 3.57. Stabaek hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stabaek are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stabaek offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 50% | Stromsgodset 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 3 Jul 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 47% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Stabaek 1.60 / Stromsgodset 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.912 / def 0.957 | Stromsgodset attack 0.988 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.728 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Stromsgodset xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Stabaek vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 3 July 2023 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Stabaek 0 - 1 Stromsgodset.
Where is Stabaek vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Stromsgodset part of?
Stabaek vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 47% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stabaek and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Stromsgodset?
Record (4 meetings): Stabaek 2W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are Stabaek and Stromsgodset in?
Stabaek (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.91) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
47%
2.11
25%
4.04
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.77
1.17
Stromsgodset xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
6%
17.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.17 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 4W 3D 4L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset's form line: 4W 2D 5L from 11 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stabaek on 1.36 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (3W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Stabaek are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stromsgodset's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stabaek come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stabaek are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.18 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stabaek have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Stromsgodset in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Stromsgodset away?
Stabaek's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 2.00 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stabaek and Stromsgodset runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stromsgodset go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2020, when Stabaek won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stabaek's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stabaek
1
Draws
3
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Stromsgodset?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 2, Stromsgodset have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2023, when Stromsgodset 2-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Stromsgodset?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stabaek see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stromsgodset see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 50%, Stromsgodset 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stabaek) and 33% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Stabaek's games and 67% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stabaek vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Stabaek's recent games and 33% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Stromsgodset defy the odds to beat Stabaek 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Stabaek 0-1 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.60 xG and Stromsgodset 1.17 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stabaek fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Stromsgodset attack 0.99 / defence 1.02, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 47% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 28%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Stromsgodset win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 73%, Stromsgodset 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stabaek 1.36 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.