Lillestrom 0-1 Tromso – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Tromso at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Åråsen Stadion plays host to Lillestrom versus Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 2 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lillestrom have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Åråsen Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tromso's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Lillestrom, 2.00 for Tromso — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lillestrom register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Tromso in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lillestrom lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lillestrom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 58% and Tromso 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 60% | Tromso 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.57 xG and Tromso 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 1.117 / defence 1.114 | Tromso attack 1.162 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.258. Data: 40 Lillestrom games / 41 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 37% | Draw 24% | Tromso 39%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Tromso 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tromso are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tromso if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 80% | Tromso 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 37% | Draw 24% | Tromso 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Lillestrom 1.57 / Tromso 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 1.117 / def 1.114 | Tromso attack 1.162 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Tromso (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Tromso xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Tromso kick off?
Lillestrom vs Tromso kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 July 2023 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Tromso?
Lillestrom 0 - 1 Tromso.
Where is Lillestrom vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Tromso part of?
Lillestrom vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 37% chance of winning, Tromso a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Lillestrom and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Tromso?
Record (4 meetings): Lillestrom 1W | Draws 2 | Tromso 1W.
What form are Lillestrom and Tromso in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Tromso (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lillestrom's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Tromso's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (1.16x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
37%
2.73
24%
4.12
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.20
1.63
Tromso xG
2.73
37%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
7%
13.93
8%
12.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.63 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lillestrom come into this having played 40 games, going 21W 7D 12L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Tromso sit at 1.65 PPG from 40 outings (17W 15D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Lillestrom against 1.65 for Tromso. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lillestrom's home form reads 11W 2D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Tromso have taken 1.42 points per game from 19 outings (6W 9D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lillestrom are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.55 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso in 75%.
Last 40 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Tromso in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 21W 7D 12L in their last 40 games (1.75 PPG), while Tromso have gone 17W 15D 8L in their last 40 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Tromso away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.84 PPG; Tromso away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Lillestrom
3
Draws
4
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Tromso?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 2, Tromso have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Tromso 0-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lillestrom see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 58% for Lillestrom, 79% for Tromso — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lillestrom) and 58% (Tromso). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Lillestrom's games and 79% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Lillestrom's matches and 58% of Tromso's.
Do Lillestrom and Tromso tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Tromso in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Lillestrom 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Lillestrom 0-1 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.57 xG and Tromso 1.63 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lillestrom fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 1.12 / defence 1.11 against Tromso attack 1.16 / defence 0.82, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 37% | Draw 24% | Tromso 39%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 60%, Tromso 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Tromso's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.75 PPG, Tromso 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Tromso (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.