Sandefjord 0-0 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 74%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host Stabaek at Release Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sandefjord have posted 3W 3D 4L at Release Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stabaek have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's away record: 1W 0D 4L from 5 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sandefjord 0.90 PPG, Stabaek 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Sandefjord have won 1, Stabaek 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 0–3 with Stabaek winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sandefjord in-play tendencies (12 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Stabaek in-play tendencies (12 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 50% versus Stabaek 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 58% | Stabaek 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 2.80 xG and Stabaek 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.192 / defence 0.956 | Stabaek attack 0.903 / defence 1.370. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.222. Stabaek bring a strong defensive rating of 1.370 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Sandefjord games / 12 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 74% | Draw 15% | Stabaek 12%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.35 | Draw 6.67 | Stabaek 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (74%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.80 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sandefjord are the pick at 74% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 70% | Stabaek 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 74% | Draw 15% | Stabaek 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 61% | xG Sandefjord 2.80 / Stabaek 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.192 / def 0.956 | Stabaek attack 0.903 / def 1.370 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.80
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Stabaek xG
61%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Stabaek kick off?
Sandefjord vs Stabaek kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 July 2023 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Sandefjord 0 - 0 Stabaek.
Where is Sandefjord vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Stabaek part of?
Sandefjord vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 74% chance of winning, Stabaek a 12% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sandefjord and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Stabaek?
Record (4 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 2W.
What form are Sandefjord and Stabaek in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Stabaek (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Stabaek's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.80. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.3%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
74%
1.36
15%
6.74
12%
8.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.80
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.85
1.05
Stabaek xG
1.36
74%
Home win
6.74
15%
Draw
8.66
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
6%
16.44
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
1%
142.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.05 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Sandefjord have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 2W 3D 7L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek's form line: 4W 3D 5L from 12 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Stabaek are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sandefjord.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sandefjord have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stabaek have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stabaek's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.25 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 games (0.75 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Stabaek away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.75 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when Stabaek won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
2
Draws
3
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Stabaek have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2023, when Stabaek 2-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Stabaek?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 50%, Stabaek at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Sandefjord and 100% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sandefjord's games and 100% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sandefjord's matches and 100% of Stabaek's.
Do Sandefjord and Stabaek tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Release Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Sandefjord and Stabaek drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 2.80 xG and Stabaek 1.05 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 2.8 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.19 / defence 0.96 against Stabaek attack 0.90 / defence 1.37, drawn from 41/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 74% | Draw 15% | Stabaek 12%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 58%, Stabaek 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (12 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stabaek's trading profile (12 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stabaek arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.