Aalesund 1-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aalesund vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aalesund and Rosenborg meet at Color Line Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aalesund have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Color Line Stadion, Aalesund have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Aalesund are significantly better at Color Line Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Rosenborg (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Rosenborg arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.90 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 4 meetings, Rosenborg have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Aalesund's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Rosenborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rosenborg have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Aalesund half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aalesund 49% versus Rosenborg 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Aalesund 61% | Rosenborg 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.49 xG and Rosenborg 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.841 / defence 1.215 | Rosenborg attack 1.099 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.258. Data: 41 Aalesund games / 42 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 34% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 42%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Rosenborg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 50% | Rosenborg 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 34% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Aalesund 1.49 / Rosenborg 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.841 / def 1.215 | Rosenborg attack 1.099 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Rosenborg xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Rosenborg kick off?
Aalesund vs Rosenborg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 July 2023 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Rosenborg?
Aalesund 1 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is Aalesund vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Rosenborg part of?
Aalesund vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 34% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Aalesund and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Rosenborg?
Record (4 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 3W.
What form are Aalesund and Rosenborg in?
Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Aalesund's attack at 0.84x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.10x) against Aalesund's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
34%
2.95
24%
4.12
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Aalesund xG
Total xG
3.17
1.68
Rosenborg xG
2.95
34%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
6%
15.85
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.68 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aalesund's recent record stands at 11W 10D 20L from 41 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 11L across 41 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aalesund heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aalesund have managed 6W 5D 8L from 19 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 4W 8D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Attack vs Defence
Aalesund are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.98 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 11W 10D 20L in their last 41 games (1.05 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 19W 11D 11L in their last 41 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Rosenborg away?
Aalesund's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.21 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Aalesund
1
Draws
4
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Rosenborg?
From 7 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 2, Rosenborg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-3 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aalesund see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 58% for Aalesund, 79% for Rosenborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Aalesund and 68% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Aalesund's games and 79% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Aalesund's matches and 68% of Rosenborg's.
Do Aalesund and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aalesund defy the odds to beat Rosenborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund beat Rosenborg 1-0 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.49 xG and Rosenborg 1.68 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rosenborg landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.84 / defence 1.22 against Rosenborg attack 1.10 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 34% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 42%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Aalesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 61%, Rosenborg 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Aalesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aalesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.