Tromso 2-1 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tromso at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tromso vs Stabaek encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tromso and Stabaek meet at Romssa Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 June 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Tromso's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Tromso's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Tromso are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Stabaek have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Stabaek have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Tromso's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Stabaek's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Tromso's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Tromso's games and 70% of Stabaek's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Tromso, 0 for Stabaek and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2021, ended Tromso 0–0 Stabaek — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Tromso half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tromso 77% and Stabaek 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Tromso 60% | Stabaek 73%). Note also that Stabaek surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Tromso recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 2.20 xG and Stabaek 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.931 / defence 0.974 | Stabaek attack 0.903 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.758 / away 1.273. Stabaek's defence rating of 1.342 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tromso's projected output up. Data: built from Tromso's last 40 games and Stabaek's last 10.
Result probabilities: Tromso 61% | Draw 22% | Stabaek 17%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 1.64 | Draw 4.60 | Stabaek 5.74. The model has a clear lean to Tromso (61%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.20 / 1.12) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tromso at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Tromso's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tromso 70% (last 10 home games) | Stabaek 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 11 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 June 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 61% | Draw 22% | Stabaek 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Tromso 2.20 / Stabaek 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.931 / def 0.974 | Stabaek attack 0.903 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.758 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Tromso (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Stabaek xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tromso vs Stabaek FAQs
What time does Tromso vs Stabaek kick off?
Tromso vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 25 June 2023 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Stabaek?
Tromso 2 - 1 Stabaek.
Where is Tromso vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Stabaek part of?
Tromso vs Stabaek is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 11) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 61% chance of winning, Stabaek a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Tromso and Stabaek will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tromso vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tromso's attack rating (0.93) and Stabaek's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (0.90x) against Tromso's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Tromso's last 40 games and Stabaek's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.60
17%
5.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.32
1.12
Stabaek xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
5.74
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
11%
9.00
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
2%
51.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tromso vs Stabaek Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Tromso and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Tromso and 1.12 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tromso's recent record stands at 10W 13D 7L from 30 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five.
Stabaek, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 17L across 30 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tromso by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stabaek heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tromso have managed 8W 5D 2L from their last 15 home games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Tromso are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stabaek's away record stands at 2W 4D 9L across their last 15 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tromso are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.17 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Stabaek in 60%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Current Season
Stabaek
Pre-Season
Tromso (Home) vs Stabaek (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tromso
Current Season
Stabaek
Pre-Season
❓ Tromso vs Stabaek Form FAQs
What form are Tromso and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 10W 13D 7L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 6W 7D 17L in their last 30 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Stabaek away?
Tromso's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.93 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Tromso and Stabaek, the earliest from June 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 30 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Tromso have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won Stabaek 0-3 Tromso on 14 Jun 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Tromso
1
Draws
0
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Tromso vs Stabaek H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Stabaek?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Tromso have won 3, Stabaek have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Tromso and Stabaek last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 September 2023: Stabaek 0-1 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Stabaek?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Tromso, 73% for Stabaek — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Tromso and 80% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tromso vs Stabaek Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tromso and Stabaek matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Tromso's games and 73% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tromso and Stabaek matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Tromso's matches and 80% of Stabaek's.
Do Tromso and Stabaek matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Tromso's recent matches and 80% of Stabaek's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Stabaek 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Stabaek 2-1 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 2.20 xG and Stabaek 1.12 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.93 / defence 0.97 against Stabaek attack 0.90 / defence 1.34, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 61% | Draw 22% | Stabaek 17%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 60%, Stabaek 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.