Stabaek 2-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 44%, yet in-form Rosenborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stabaek vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nadderud Stadion plays host to Stabaek versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien (matchday 10). Kick-off: Sunday 11 June 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Stabaek's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Stabaek's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rosenborg (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Rosenborg arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Stabaek's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) — Stabaek have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rosenborg in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Rosenborg have the stronger record — 3 wins to Stabaek's 0, with 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2021, ended Stabaek 1–3 Rosenborg — a Rosenborg win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Rosenborg have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 4.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Stabaek — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stabaek 60% and Rosenborg 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 73% | Rosenborg 80%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stabaek surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Rosenborg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.46 xG and Rosenborg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.851 / defence 0.837 | Rosenborg attack 1.020 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.234. Data: built from Stabaek's last 9 games and Rosenborg's last 40.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 44% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 25%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.27 | Draw 3.20 | Rosenborg 4.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stabaek at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stabaek if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Stabaek's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stabaek 60% (last 10 home games) | Rosenborg 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 10 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 June 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 44% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Stabaek 1.46 / Rosenborg 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.851 / def 0.837 | Rosenborg attack 1.020 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Rosenborg xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stabaek vs Rosenborg FAQs
What time does Stabaek vs Rosenborg kick off?
Stabaek vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 11 June 2023 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Stabaek 2 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Stabaek vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Rosenborg part of?
Stabaek vs Rosenborg is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 10) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 44% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Stabaek and Rosenborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stabaek vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.02x) against Stabaek's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Stabaek's last 9 games and Rosenborg's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
44%
2.27
31%
3.20
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.51
1.05
Rosenborg xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
6%
17.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stabaek vs Rosenborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.05 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Stabaek have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 6W 7D 17L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Rosenborg's form line: 16W 8D 6L from 30 games, 1.87 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 15 home games (4W 3D 8L).
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 4W 6D 5L from their last 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stabaek are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 2.30 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stabaek have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 70%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Pre-Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
Stabaek (Home) vs Rosenborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stabaek
Pre-Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Stabaek vs Rosenborg Form FAQs
What form are Stabaek and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 6W 7D 17L in their last 30 games (0.83 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 16W 8D 6L in their last 30 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.00 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2020 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won Stabaek 0-3 Rosenborg on 5 Jul 2020, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Stabaek
3
Draws
3
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Stabaek vs Rosenborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Rosenborg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stabaek have won 0, Rosenborg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Rosenborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 October 2023: Rosenborg 1-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 47%, Rosenborg 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Stabaek and 73% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stabaek vs Rosenborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stabaek and Rosenborg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Stabaek's games and 80% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stabaek and Rosenborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Stabaek's matches and 73% of Rosenborg's.
Do Stabaek and Rosenborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Stabaek's recent matches and 93% of Rosenborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stabaek and Rosenborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Stabaek and Rosenborg drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.46 xG and Rosenborg 1.05 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.85 / defence 0.84 against Rosenborg attack 1.02 / defence 0.97, drawn from 9/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 44% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 25%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 73%, Rosenborg 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.