Rosenborg 4-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 4 June 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ham-Kam away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Rosenborg's favour (1.90 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Ham-Kam in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rosenborg lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Rosenborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Ham-Kam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 70% and Ham-Kam 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 80% | Ham-Kam 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.96 xG and Ham-Kam 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.758 / defence 1.088 | Ham-Kam attack 1.044 / defence 1.533. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.163. Rosenborg's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ham-Kam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.533 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Rosenborg games / 38 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 50% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 24%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Ham-Kam 4.17. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Ham-Kam 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 50% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Rosenborg 1.96 / Ham-Kam 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.758 / def 1.088 | Ham-Kam attack 1.044 / def 1.533 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Ham-Kam xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Rosenborg 4 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam part of?
Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 50% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Rosenborg and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Ham-Kam?
Record (2 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 1 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rosenborg's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (1.04x) against Rosenborg's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.82
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.28
1.32
Ham-Kam xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
3%
30.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.32 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 16W 8D 6L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Ham-Kam's form line: 6W 13D 11L from 30 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.53 PPG from 15 outings (12W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.87 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 7D 6L from 15 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.10 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Ham-Kam in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 16W 8D 6L in their last 30 games (1.87 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 6W 13D 11L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Ham-Kam away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.53 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
1
Draws
2
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Ham-Kam?
From 8 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Ham-Kam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when Ham-Kam 4-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Ham-Kam?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Rosenborg, 80% for Ham-Kam — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Rosenborg and 60% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 80% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Rosenborg's matches and 60% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Rosenborg and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Ham-Kam 4-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.96 xG and Ham-Kam 1.32 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ham-Kam landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.76 / defence 1.09 against Ham-Kam attack 1.04 / defence 1.53, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 50% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 24%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 80%, Ham-Kam 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.