Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-3 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 June 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sarpsborg Stadion this season.
Viking have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Viking away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Sarpsborg 08 FF's 2.20 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Viking's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sarpsborg 08 FF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Viking in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sarpsborg 08 FF lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 65% and Viking 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sarpsborg 08 FF 62% | Viking 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.81 xG and Viking 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.946 / defence 0.943 | Viking attack 0.997 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.234. Data: 39 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 39 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Draw 27% | Viking 22%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Viking 4.55. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Viking 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jun 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Draw 27% | Viking 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.81 / Viking 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.946 / def 0.943 | Viking attack 0.997 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Viking xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 11 June 2023 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 3 Viking.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 50% chance of winning, Viking a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking?
Record (3 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W | Draws 0 | Viking 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Viking (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.95) and Viking's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.00x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
50%
1.98
27%
3.65
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.97
1.16
Viking xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
4%
27.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.16 for Viking, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 23W 11D 26L from 60 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 20L across 60 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.53 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 12W 8D 10L from 30 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 12W 6D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.80 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Viking in 75%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Viking have gone 26W 14D 20L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Viking away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.47 PPG; Viking away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
Draws
5
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, Viking have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 73% for Viking — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 73% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 73% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 73% of Viking's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Viking in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-3 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.81 xG and Viking 1.16 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Viking outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.95 / defence 0.94 against Viking attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Draw 27% | Viking 22%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Viking win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 62%, Viking 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.33 PPG, Viking 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.