Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 89% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 June 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Bodo/Glimt have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ham-Kam have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ham-Kam away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 1.10 PPG lead over Ham-Kam (1.90 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Ham-Kam's last 10 away games) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ham-Kam in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2022, ended Bodo/Glimt 2–2 Ham-Kam — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 70% and Ham-Kam 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 73% | Ham-Kam 53%). Note also that Ham-Kam surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Bodo/Glimt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 4.28 xG and Ham-Kam 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.473 / defence 0.958 | Ham-Kam attack 0.883 / defence 1.650. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.234. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.473 — their 4.28 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Ham-Kam's defence rating of 1.650 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bodo/Glimt's projected output up. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 40 games and Ham-Kam's last 39.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 89% | Draw 8% | Ham-Kam 4%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.13 | Draw 13.16 | Ham-Kam 26.67. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (89%) — a 81pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 90% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 5.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 90% — a total xG of 5.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (4.28 / 1.04) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 89% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 5.32 combined xG gives a 90% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Ham-Kam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 home games) | Ham-Kam 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 10 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 June 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 89% | Draw 8% | Ham-Kam 4% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 90% (Under 10%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 4.28 / Ham-Kam 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.473 / def 0.958 | Ham-Kam attack 0.883 / def 1.650 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (89%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
4.28
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Ham-Kam xG
64%
BTTS
97%
Over 1.5
90%
Over 2.5
78%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 11 June 2023 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam?
Bodo/Glimt 3 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 10) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 89% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 4% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 90%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 4.28. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.88x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 40 games and Ham-Kam's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 4-1, at 7.1%. Close behind: 4-0 (6.8%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
89%
1.13
8%
13.16
4%
26.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
4 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 0
6.8%
Home win
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
4.28
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
5.32
1.04
Ham-Kam xG
1.13
89%
Home win
13.16
8%
Draw
26.67
4%
Away win
Goals Markets
97%
Over 1.5
1.03
3%
Under 1.5
33.33
90%
Over 2.5
1.11
10%
Under 2.5
10.00
78%
Over 3.5
1.28
22%
Under 3.5
4.55
61%
Over 4.5
1.64
39%
Under 4.5
2.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
1%
72.02
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 4-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 4.28 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.04 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 5.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 89%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 30 games, going 18W 6D 6L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.03 PPG from 30 outings (6W 13D 11L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 8W 6D 1L across their last 15 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 0.87 points per game from their last 15 away games (2W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.87 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.10 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Ham-Kam in 70%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs Ham-Kam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam Form FAQs
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 18W 6D 6L in their last 30 games (2.00 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 6W 13D 11L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Ham-Kam away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.00 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Bodo/Glimt have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Ham-Kam on 11 Jun 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
1
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, Ham-Kam have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Ham-Kam 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Bodo/Glimt, 80% for Ham-Kam — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Bodo/Glimt and 60% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 73% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 80% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 60% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 73% of Ham-Kam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Ham-Kam 3-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 4.28 xG and Ham-Kam 1.04 xG, a combined 5.32. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ham-Kam landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.47 / defence 0.96 against Ham-Kam attack 0.88 / defence 1.65, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 89% | Draw 8% | Ham-Kam 4%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 89%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 90%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 97% and landed. Over 3.5 was 78% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 73%, Ham-Kam 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.