ODD Ballklubb 0-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Bodo/Glimt travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 July 2023 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, ODD Ballklubb stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

ODD Ballklubb at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Bodo/Glimt — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bodo/Glimt's away record over their last 10 away games: 8W 0D 2L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 2.30 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of ODD Ballklubb's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 4 for Bodo/Glimt and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 May 2023, ended ODD Ballklubb 0–2 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (last 43 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 63%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 49% versus Bodo/Glimt 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 46% | Bodo/Glimt 74%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.14 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.770 / defence 0.716 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.325 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.222. ODD Ballklubb's attack rating of 0.770 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.325, which lifts their away xG to 1.16. ODD Ballklubb have a tight defence (rating 0.716), which is pulling Bodo/Glimt's projected output down. Data: built from ODD Ballklubb's last 43 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 43.

Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 35% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 36%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.84 | Draw 3.52 | Bodo/Glimt 2.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (ODD Ballklubb's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches point the other way.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: ODD Ballklubb 50% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 away games).

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