Tromso 0-0 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Tromso at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tromso vs Valerenga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tromso host Valerenga at Romssa Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tromso stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Romssa Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Romssa Arena this season.
Valerenga — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Valerenga have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Tromso have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Tromso have won 1, Valerenga 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Valerenga winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Tromso in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Valerenga in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tromso 73% and Valerenga 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 58% | Valerenga 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.57 xG and Valerenga 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.936 / defence 0.975 | Valerenga attack 1.042 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.222. Data: 42 Tromso games / 41 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 45% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 30%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Valerenga 3.33. Tromso hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tromso are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 70% | Valerenga 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 45% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Tromso 1.57 / Valerenga 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.936 / def 0.975 | Valerenga attack 1.042 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Tromso (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Valerenga xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Valerenga kick off?
Tromso vs Valerenga kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 July 2023 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Valerenga?
Tromso 0 - 0 Valerenga.
Where is Tromso vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Valerenga part of?
Tromso vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 45% chance of winning, Valerenga a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Tromso and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Valerenga?
Record (4 meetings): Tromso 1W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 1W.
What form are Tromso and Valerenga in?
Tromso (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Valerenga (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tromso's attack rating (0.94) and Valerenga's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
45%
2.22
25%
4.03
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.82
1.24
Valerenga xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
6%
16.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Tromso and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Tromso and 1.24 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Tromso have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 18W 15D 8L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga's form line: 16W 6D 19L from 41 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tromso on 1.68 PPG, Valerenga on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Tromso have posted 1.80 PPG from 20 outings (10W 6D 4L).
On the road, Valerenga have gone 6W 4D 10L from 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tromso are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.63 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 18W 15D 8L in their last 41 games (1.68 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 16W 6D 19L in their last 41 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Valerenga away?
Tromso's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.80 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tromso and Valerenga runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2026, when Tromso won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tromso's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Tromso
4
Draws
2
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Valerenga?
From 9 meetings on record, Tromso have won 3, Valerenga have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Tromso 4-0 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Valerenga?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Tromso at 70%, Valerenga at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Tromso and 60% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Tromso's games and 70% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Tromso's matches and 60% of Valerenga's.
Do Tromso and Valerenga tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Tromso's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Tromso and Valerenga drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.57 xG and Valerenga 1.24 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tromso fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Valerenga attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 45% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 30%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 58%, Valerenga 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Valerenga's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tromso 1.68 PPG, Valerenga 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.