Stabaek 0-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 37%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stabaek vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nadderud Stadion plays host to Stabaek versus Viking in Eliteserien (matchday 14). Kick-off: Sunday 16 July 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Stabaek (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stabaek's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 1L across their last 7 home games (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from their last 7 home games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stabaek are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Viking have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Viking are 1.00 PPG clear of Stabaek over their recent games (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Viking edge it 1 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Sep 2021, ended Stabaek 1–3 Viking — a Viking win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stabaek 54% and Viking 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 62% | Viking 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stabaek surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Viking have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.36 xG and Viking 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.796 / defence 0.964 | Viking attack 1.149 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.223. Stabaek's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.36. Data: built from Stabaek's last 13 games and Viking's last 43.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 37% | Draw 26% | Viking 37%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.70 | Draw 3.82 | Viking 2.72. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 37% to win, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Stabaek 37% and Viking 37%, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stabaek's last 7 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stabaek 43% (last 7 home games) | Viking 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 14 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 July 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 37% | Draw 26% | Viking 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Stabaek 1.36 / Viking 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.796 / def 0.964 | Viking attack 1.149 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Stabaek and Viking level at 37% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Viking xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stabaek vs Viking FAQs
What time does Stabaek vs Viking kick off?
Stabaek vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Viking?
Stabaek 0 - 1 Viking.
Where is Stabaek vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Viking part of?
Stabaek vs Viking is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 14) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 37% chance of winning, Viking a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stabaek and Viking will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stabaek vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.15x) against Stabaek's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Stabaek's last 13 games and Viking's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.82
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.72
1.35
Viking xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
10%
10.44
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stabaek vs Viking Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.35 for Viking, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 4W 4D 5L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Viking's form line: 8W 2D 3L from 13 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.83 PPG from their last 6 home games (3W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Stabaek are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Viking have gone 3W 1D 2L from their last 6 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stabaek are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.31 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 77%.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Viking
Blended
Stabaek (Home) vs Viking (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stabaek
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Stabaek vs Viking Form FAQs
What form are Stabaek and Viking in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Viking have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Viking away?
Stabaek's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.83 PPG; Viking away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Viking in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2020 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 20 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Stabaek
3
Draws
3
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Stabaek vs Viking H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Viking?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stabaek have won 0, Viking have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Viking last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 August 2023: Viking 1-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Stabaek, 83% for Viking — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stabaek) and 67% (Viking). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stabaek vs Viking Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stabaek and Viking matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Stabaek's games and 83% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stabaek and Viking matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Stabaek's matches and 67% of Viking's.
Do Stabaek and Viking matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Stabaek's recent matches and 83% of Viking's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Viking defy the odds to beat Stabaek 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Stabaek 0-1 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.36 xG and Viking 1.35 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stabaek fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against Viking attack 1.15 / defence 1.03, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 37% | Draw 26% | Viking 37%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 62%, Viking 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.