Stromsgodset 0-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Marienlyst Stadion plays host to Stromsgodset versus Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 5 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stromsgodset's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Marienlyst Stadion, Stromsgodset have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Haugesund have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Haugesund in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Stromsgodset, 1 for Haugesund and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2021, ended 1–2 with Haugesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Stromsgodset half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Haugesund half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 59% versus Haugesund 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 62% | Haugesund 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 2.42 xG and Haugesund 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.229 / defence 0.859 | Haugesund attack 0.971 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.230. Data: 58 Stromsgodset games / 58 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 66% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 12%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Haugesund 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stromsgodset are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 60% | Haugesund 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 66% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 60% | xG Stromsgodset 2.42 / Haugesund 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.229 / def 0.859 | Haugesund attack 0.971 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Haugesund xG
60%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Haugesund kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Stromsgodset 0 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Haugesund part of?
Stromsgodset vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 66% chance of winning, Haugesund a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Stromsgodset and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Haugesund?
Record (1 meetings): Stromsgodset 0W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Haugesund in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Haugesund (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.42. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.97x) against Stromsgodset's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.3%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
66%
1.52
22%
4.61
12%
8.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.44
1.03
Haugesund xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
8.10
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
9%
11.19
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
1%
90.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.03 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 16W 17D 25L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Haugesund's form line: 20W 13D 25L from 58 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Stromsgodset against 1.26 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.45 PPG from 29 outings (11W 9D 9L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 6W 7D 16L from 29 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.45 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 16W 17D 25L in their last 58 games (1.12 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 20W 13D 25L in their last 58 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Haugesund away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.45 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Stromsgodset go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stromsgodset won 0-5 on 6 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stromsgodset
2
Draws
4
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 4, Haugesund have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-0 Haugesund.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 62%, Haugesund 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Stromsgodset and 59% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Stromsgodset's games and 62% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Stromsgodset's matches and 59% of Haugesund's.
Do Stromsgodset and Haugesund tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stromsgodset's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and Haugesund finished level at 0-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 2.42 xG and Haugesund 1.03 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.23 / defence 0.86 against Haugesund attack 0.97 / defence 1.13, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 66% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 12%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 62%, Haugesund 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haugesund's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.12 PPG, Haugesund 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.