Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Lillestrom and Bodo/Glimt meet at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 00:00 UK time.

Current Form

Lillestrom's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Lillestrom have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Bodo/Glimt's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Lillestrom, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 21 Nov 2021, ended Lillestrom 0–2 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 64% versus Bodo/Glimt 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 61% | Bodo/Glimt 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.04 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.873 / defence 0.895 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.315 / defence 0.663. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.224. Bodo/Glimt bring a tight defence (rating 0.663, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Lillestrom's projected output down. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.315, which lifts their away xG to 1.44. Data: built from Lillestrom's last 28 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 57.

Result probabilities: Lillestrom 24% | Draw 33% | Bodo/Glimt 43%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 4.12 | Draw 3.07 | Bodo/Glimt 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lillestrom 50% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 away games).

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