Stabaek 1-0 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 39%, yet in-form Lillestrom provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stabaek vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nadderud Stadion plays host to Stabaek versus Lillestrom in Eliteserien (matchday 24). Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Stabaek's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Stabaek's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Stabaek are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Lillestrom are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Lillestrom, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Jun 2023, ended Stabaek 1–3 Lillestrom — a Lillestrom win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Lillestrom have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Stabaek — key trading statistics (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Lillestrom — key trading statistics (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 48% versus Lillestrom 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 52% | Lillestrom 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.36 xG and Lillestrom 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.768 / defence 1.008 | Lillestrom attack 0.962 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.276. Stabaek's attack rating of 0.768 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.36. Data: built from Stabaek's last 23 games and Lillestrom's last 53.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 39% | Draw 28% | Lillestrom 33%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.56 | Draw 3.58 | Lillestrom 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stabaek are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lillestrom (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stabaek if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stabaek 40% (last 10 home games) | Lillestrom 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 24 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 39% | Draw 28% | Lillestrom 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Stabaek 1.36 / Lillestrom 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.768 / def 1.008 | Lillestrom attack 0.962 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Lillestrom xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stabaek vs Lillestrom FAQs
What time does Stabaek vs Lillestrom kick off?
Stabaek vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Lillestrom?
Stabaek 1 - 0 Lillestrom.
Where is Stabaek vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Lillestrom part of?
Stabaek vs Lillestrom is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 24) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 39% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stabaek and Lillestrom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stabaek vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.96x) against Stabaek's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Stabaek's last 23 games and Lillestrom's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.58
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.60
1.24
Lillestrom xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
8%
11.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stabaek vs Lillestrom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.24 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Stabaek have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 5W 5D 13L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Lillestrom's form line: 11W 3D 9L from 23 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Lillestrom are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.27 PPG from their last 11 home games (4W 2D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 0.87 PPG overall — Stabaek are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 4W 3D 4L from their last 11 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Stabaek are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.78 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom in 70%.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
Stabaek (Home) vs Lillestrom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stabaek
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Stabaek vs Lillestrom Form FAQs
What form are Stabaek and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 5W 5D 13L in their last 23 games (0.87 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 11W 3D 9L in their last 23 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.27 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Stabaek and Lillestrom, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 8 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won Lillestrom 3-0 Stabaek on 27 Oct 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stabaek
0
Draws
3
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Stabaek vs Lillestrom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Lillestrom?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Stabaek have won 1, Lillestrom have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Lillestrom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 October 2023: Stabaek 1-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stabaek see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 36%, Lillestrom 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Stabaek) and 54% (Lillestrom).
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 46% of games; Lillestrom in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stabaek vs Lillestrom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stabaek and Lillestrom matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Stabaek's recent matches and 64% of Lillestrom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stabaek and Lillestrom matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Stabaek's recent games and 54% of Lillestrom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Lillestrom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Stabaek's recent matches and 64% of Lillestrom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stabaek edge out Lillestrom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Lillestrom 1-0 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.36 xG and Lillestrom 1.24 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lillestrom landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against Lillestrom attack 0.96 / defence 0.99, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 39% | Draw 28% | Lillestrom 33%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 52%, Lillestrom 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Lillestrom's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Stabaek winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stabaek (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.