Rosenborg 1-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rosenborg (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rosenborg face Sandefjord.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host Sandefjord at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Rosenborg have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sandefjord in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Rosenborg hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Sandefjord, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2022, ended 5–2 with Rosenborg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Rosenborg and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 5.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Sandefjord in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 70% and Sandefjord 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 77% | Sandefjord 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.91 xG and Sandefjord 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.035 / defence 0.879 | Sandefjord attack 0.858 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.031. Data: 32 Rosenborg games / 32 Sandefjord games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 64% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 15%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Sandefjord 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Rosenborg 70% | Sandefjord 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 64% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 46% | xG Rosenborg 1.91 / Sandefjord 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.035 / def 0.879 | Sandefjord attack 0.858 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Sandefjord xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Sandefjord kick off?
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Rosenborg 1 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord part of?
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 64% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rosenborg and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
Record (3 meetings): Rosenborg 3W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Sandefjord in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
64%
1.56
21%
4.69
15%
6.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.69
0.78
Sandefjord xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
6.88
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
29%
3.39
2%
46.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.78 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 29W 17D 14L from 60 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Sandefjord, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 32L across 60 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sandefjord heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 20W 6D 4L from 30 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sandefjord's away record stands at 8W 1D 21L across 30 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.37 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Sandefjord in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 29W 17D 14L in their last 60 games (1.73 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 16W 12D 32L in their last 60 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Sandefjord away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.20 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when Rosenborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
3
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Sandefjord have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Sandefjord 0-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 60%, Sandefjord 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Rosenborg and 77% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sandefjord in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 53% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Rosenborg's matches and 77% of Sandefjord's.
Do Rosenborg and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg and Sandefjord share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg and Sandefjord finished level at 1-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.91 xG and Sandefjord 0.78 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.03 / defence 0.88 against Sandefjord attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 64% | Draw 21% | Sandefjord 15%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 77%, Sandefjord 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.