Aalesund 0-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aalesund vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aalesund and Rosenborg meet at Color Line Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 July 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aalesund have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Color Line Stadion, Aalesund have gone 3W 2D 1L this season (6 games, 1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Aalesund are significantly better at Color Line Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Rosenborg (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Aalesund lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2020, ended 1–2 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Aalesund half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aalesund 50% versus Rosenborg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 50% | Rosenborg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.29 xG and Rosenborg 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.844 / defence 1.068 | Rosenborg attack 1.100 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.373. Data: 14 Aalesund games / 43 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 31% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 45%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Rosenborg 2.22. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 50% | Rosenborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 31% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Aalesund 1.29 / Rosenborg 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.844 / def 1.068 | Rosenborg attack 1.100 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Rosenborg xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Rosenborg kick off?
Aalesund vs Rosenborg kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Rosenborg?
Aalesund 0 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is Aalesund vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Rosenborg part of?
Aalesund vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 31% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Aalesund and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Rosenborg?
Record (2 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 0 | Rosenborg 2W.
What form are Aalesund and Rosenborg in?
Aalesund (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Aalesund's attack at 0.84x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.10x) against Aalesund's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 14/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
31%
3.27
24%
4.10
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.90
1.61
Rosenborg xG
3.27
31%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
6%
16.39
12%
8.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.61 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aalesund's recent record stands at 5W 5D 4L from 14 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 2L across 14 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Aalesund against 1.57 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aalesund have managed 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Aalesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 1W 3D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aalesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aalesund are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.79 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 games (1.43 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 5W 7D 2L in their last 14 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Rosenborg away?
Aalesund's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.83 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Aalesund
1
Draws
4
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Rosenborg?
From 7 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 2, Rosenborg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-3 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aalesund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aalesund 50%, Rosenborg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Aalesund) and 50% (Rosenborg).
On the defensive side: Aalesund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Aalesund's games and 67% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Aalesund's recent games and 50% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aalesund and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Aalesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund and Rosenborg finished level at 0-0 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.29 xG and Rosenborg 1.61 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Aalesund fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.84 / defence 1.07 against Rosenborg attack 1.10 / defence 0.99, drawn from 14/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 31% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 45%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 50%, Rosenborg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aalesund 1.43 PPG, Rosenborg 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.