Valerenga vs Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valerenga vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valerenga host Lillestrom at Intility Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Valerenga — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valerenga have posted 7W 3D 0L at Intility Arena — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 2.15 xG and Lillestrom 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.143 / defence 0.957 | Lillestrom attack 0.700 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.227. Lillestrom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Valerenga's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Valerenga games / 4 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 67% | Draw 20% | Lillestrom 13%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Lillestrom 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Valerenga (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 67% | Draw 20% | Lillestrom 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 50% | xG Valerenga 2.15 / Lillestrom 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.143 / def 0.957 | Lillestrom attack 0.700 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Lillestrom xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Lillestrom kick off?
Valerenga vs Lillestrom kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Intility Arena.
Where is Valerenga vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Lillestrom part of?
Valerenga vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 67% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Valerenga and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Lillestrom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valerenga and Lillestrom in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Valerenga home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valerenga's attack rating (1.14) and Lillestrom's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
67%
1.49
20%
4.95
13%
7.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.97
0.82
Lillestrom xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
7.94
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
12%
8.54
Win to Nil
30%
3.38
1%
67.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Valerenga and 0.82 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Pre-Season
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lillestrom go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Valerenga's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Valerenga
2
Draws
4
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Lillestrom?
From 7 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 1, Lillestrom have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Valerenga 0-2 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Valerenga's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga and Lillestrom finished level at 0-0 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 2.15 xG and Lillestrom 0.82 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valerenga fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Lillestrom landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.14 / defence 0.96 against Lillestrom attack 0.70 / defence 1.24, drawn from 36/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 67% | Draw 20% | Lillestrom 13%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.