Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kristiansund Stadion plays host to Kristiansund BK versus Mjondalen in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Kristiansund BK (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansund BK have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mjondalen's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Mjondalen's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 1.30 for Mjondalen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Kristiansund BK 2W, Mjondalen 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2020, ended 1–0 with Kristiansund BK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Kristiansund BK — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Mjondalen — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 83% and Mjondalen 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 70% | Mjondalen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.23 xG and Mjondalen 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.887 / defence 0.963 | Mjondalen attack 1.057 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.298. Data: 35 Kristiansund BK games / 34 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 33% | Draw 30% | Mjondalen 37%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Mjondalen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjondalen as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjondalen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 80% | Mjondalen 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 33% | Draw 30% | Mjondalen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.23 / Mjondalen 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.887 / def 0.963 | Mjondalen attack 1.057 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Mjondalen xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Kristiansund Stadion.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 33% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen?
Record (2 meetings): Kristiansund BK 2W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kristiansund BK's attack rating (0.89) and Mjondalen's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mjondalen's attack (1.06x) against Kristiansund BK's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
33%
3.05
30%
3.29
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.55
1.32
Mjondalen xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
9%
11.45
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.32 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Kristiansund BK have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 12W 12D 6L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Mjondalen's form line: 9W 2D 19L from 30 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Kristiansund BK are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kristiansund BK have posted 1.57 PPG from 14 outings (6W 4D 4L).
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 2W 2D 10L from 14 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mjondalen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.97 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
Mjondalen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 12W 12D 6L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 9W 2D 19L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Mjondalen away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.57 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjondalen won 5-0 on 27 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kristiansund BK have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Kristiansund BK
1
Draws
1
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 2, Mjondalen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2021, when Mjondalen 5-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 79%, Mjondalen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Kristiansund BK) and 43% (Mjondalen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Kristiansund BK's games and 50% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 43% of Mjondalen's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kristiansund BK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Kristiansund BK and Mjondalen drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.23 xG and Mjondalen 1.32 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Mjondalen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Mjondalen attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 33% | Draw 30% | Mjondalen 37%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 70%, Mjondalen 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjondalen's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kristiansund BK arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.