Rosenborg 2-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 6 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lerkendal Stadion.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam away from home this season: 1W 5D 1L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Rosenborg's favour (1.90 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rosenborg lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Ham-Kam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 56% and Ham-Kam 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 62% | Ham-Kam 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.90 xG and Ham-Kam 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.233 / defence 0.936 | Ham-Kam attack 0.856 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.340. Data: 46 Rosenborg games / 16 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 57% | Draw 22% | Ham-Kam 21%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Ham-Kam 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 50% | Ham-Kam 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 57% | Draw 22% | Ham-Kam 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Rosenborg 1.90 / Ham-Kam 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.233 / def 0.936 | Ham-Kam attack 0.856 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Ham-Kam xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Rosenborg 2 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam part of?
Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 57% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rosenborg and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Ham-Kam?
Record (1 meetings): Rosenborg 0W | Draws 1 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.86x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
57%
1.77
22%
4.49
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.97
1.07
Ham-Kam xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
3%
31.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.07 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 7W 7D 2L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam's form line: 3W 9D 4L from 16 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.43 PPG from 7 outings (5W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 5D 1L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.19 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam in 69%.
Defensively: Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 7W 7D 2L in their last 16 games (1.75 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 3W 9D 4L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Ham-Kam away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.43 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
1
Draws
2
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Ham-Kam?
From 8 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Ham-Kam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when Ham-Kam 4-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Ham-Kam?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 43% for Rosenborg, 100% for Ham-Kam — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Rosenborg) and 43% (Ham-Kam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Rosenborg's games and 100% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Rosenborg's matches and 43% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Rosenborg and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Ham-Kam 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Ham-Kam 2-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.90 xG and Ham-Kam 1.07 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.23 / defence 0.94 against Ham-Kam attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 57% | Draw 22% | Ham-Kam 21%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 62%, Ham-Kam 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.