Ham-Kam 0-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 16 as Ham-Kam welcome Kristiansund BK to Briskeby Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 July 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 2L across 8 games at Briskeby Arena this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 0W 0D 10L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Ham-Kam have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ham-Kam have won 0, Kristiansund BK 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 73% and Kristiansund BK 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 47% | Kristiansund BK 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.49 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.772 / defence 0.963 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.602 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.327. Ham-Kam's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Ham-Kam games / 44 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 54% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 19%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Kristiansund BK 5.26. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 50% | Kristiansund BK 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 54% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Ham-Kam 1.49 / Kristiansund BK 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.772 / def 0.963 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.602 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Kristiansund BK xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Ham-Kam 0 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 54% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK?
Record (1 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 0W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.77x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.80
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.26
0.77
Kristiansund BK xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
4%
22.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.0 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 0.77 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 3W 9D 3L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK's form line: 1W 2D 12L from 15 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ham-Kam are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kristiansund BK.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (2W 4D 2L).
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 0W 0D 8L from 8 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 0.80 scored and 2.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 3W 9D 3L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 1W 2D 12L in their last 15 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.25 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
1
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK?
From 7 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 3, Kristiansund BK have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Kristiansund BK 1-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 50%, Kristiansund BK 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ham-Kam) and 50% (Kristiansund BK).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 38% of games; Kristiansund BK in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 38% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 50% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kristiansund BK defy the odds to beat Ham-Kam 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Ham-Kam 0-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.49 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.77 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ham-Kam fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.77 / defence 0.96 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.60 / defence 1.20, drawn from 15/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 54% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 19%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Kristiansund BK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 47%, Kristiansund BK 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ham-Kam arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Kristiansund BK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.